Lady Vols Basketball Tumble in Updated Bracketology After Loss to Mississippi State

Tennessee drops to a 4-seed in ESPN's latest NCAA Tournament projection after defeat at home.

Jan. 30, 2026 at 11:23am

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The Tennessee Lady Volunteers women's basketball team fell to the Mississippi State Bulldogs 77-62 on Thursday, causing them to drop to a 4-seed in ESPN bracketologist Charlie Creme's updated NCAA Tournament projection. This is a step down from their previous 3-seed ranking before the loss.

Why it matters

The Lady Vols' loss to Mississippi State has significant implications for their NCAA Tournament seeding and path. As a 4-seed, they would still host the first two rounds, but would likely face a daunting matchup with 1-seed UConn in the Sweet 16 if they advance that far.

The details

In Creme's updated bracket, Tennessee is slotted as a 4-seed and would open the tournament at home against 13-seed Murray State. The winner of that game would face the winner of 5-seed Duke (coached by LVFL Kara Lawson) and 12-seed Green Bay. The Lady Vols' potential road to the Final Four also includes 2-seed Michigan and 3-seed TCU.

  • On Thursday, January 29, 2026, the Lady Vols lost 77-62 to Mississippi State at home.
  • The updated ESPN bracketology was released on January 30, 2026.

The players

Charlie Creme

ESPN bracketologist who projects the NCAA Tournament field.

Kara Lawson

Former Lady Vol and current head coach of the Duke Blue Devils women's basketball team.

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What’s next

The Lady Vols have a tough upcoming schedule, including a rivalry game against No. 1 UConn on Sunday, followed by road games against No. 23 Georgia and No. 3 South Carolina.

The takeaway

Tennessee's loss to Mississippi State has hurt their NCAA Tournament seeding, but they still have an opportunity to improve their standing with a strong finish to the regular season. Their upcoming games against top-ranked opponents will be crucial in determining their final seed and tournament path.