Red State Republicans Face Vulnerabilities Amid Scandals and Weak Fundraising

Democrats see opportunities to flip two deep-red congressional seats due to GOP incumbents' troubles

Published on Feb. 9, 2026

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According to a new report, two Republican members of Congress representing deep-red districts are facing vulnerabilities heading into the 2026 midterm elections. Cory Mills, the GOP congressman from Florida's 7th District, is dealing with allegations of stolen valor, domestic violence, and shady business dealings, while also struggling with weak fundraising numbers. Similarly, Rep. Andy Ogles of Tennessee's 5th District is fending off an investigation into alleged campaign finance violations and has been outraised by his Democratic challenger.

Why it matters

These developments in traditionally Republican strongholds suggest that the political landscape may be shifting, with scandals and financial troubles potentially undermining the GOP's grip on certain red state districts. The vulnerabilities of Mills and Ogles could open the door for Democrats to make gains in the 2026 midterms, even in areas that have long been considered safe Republican territory.

The details

Cory Mills, the Republican congressman from Florida's 7th District, is facing allegations of stolen valor, domestic violence, and shady business dealings, which appear to have hampered his fundraising efforts. In the last quarter of 2025, Mills raised just $61,000, a significant drop from his previous fundraising totals. Meanwhile, his Democratic challenger, Bale Dalton, a Navy veteran and former NASA chief of staff, raised over $343,000 in the same period. In Tennessee's 5th District, Republican Rep. Andy Ogles is also struggling with fundraising, having raised only $209,000 in the last two quarters of 2025, while his Democratic opponent, Chaz Molder, the mayor of Columbia, Tennessee, raised well over $1 million in that same time frame. Ogles is also facing an investigation into alleged campaign finance violations.

  • In the last quarter of 2025, Cory Mills raised just $61,000, a significant drop from his previous fundraising totals.
  • In the last two quarters of 2025, Andy Ogles raised $209,000, while his Democratic opponent, Chaz Molder, raised well over $1 million.

The players

Cory Mills

A Republican congressman representing Florida's 7th District, who is facing allegations of stolen valor, domestic violence, and shady business dealings.

Bale Dalton

A Navy veteran and former NASA chief of staff, who is the Democratic challenger to Cory Mills in Florida's 7th District.

Andy Ogles

A Republican congressman representing Tennessee's 5th District, who is facing an investigation into alleged campaign finance violations.

Chaz Molder

The mayor of Columbia, Tennessee, who is the Democratic challenger to Andy Ogles in Tennessee's 5th District.

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What they’re saying

“My message is: Life is too expensive, and Cory Mills is too corrupt to fix it.”

— Bale Dalton, Democratic challenger (NOTUS)

What’s next

The judge in the case against Cory Mills will decide on Tuesday whether or not to allow him out on bail.

The takeaway

These vulnerabilities in traditionally Republican strongholds suggest that the political landscape may be shifting, with scandals and financial troubles potentially undermining the GOP's grip on certain red state districts. The 2026 midterms could see Democrats making gains in areas that have long been considered safe Republican territory.