Nuclear Security Expert Analyzes Escalating Iran Conflict

Brown University professor Reid Pauly provides context on the expanding military actions between the U.S., Israel, and Iran.

Published on Mar. 7, 2026

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As fighting spreads through the Middle East amid Iran's retaliation against recent U.S. and Israeli military strikes that killed Iran's Supreme Leader, Brown University political science and nuclear security expert Reid Pauly shares insights on the long-running nuclear crisis with Iran and the potential outcomes of the current military campaign aimed at regime change.

Why it matters

The conflict in the Middle East has rapidly accelerated following the targeted killings of Iran's top leadership, raising concerns about the potential for a wider regional war and the implications for Iran's nuclear program and future governance.

The details

Pauly explains that the current military actions differ from prior strikes on Iran, which were more limited in scope and focused on targeting the country's nuclear infrastructure. This week's broader campaign appears aimed at regime change through air power alone, which Pauly says has a pessimistic historical track record of success.

  • The nuclear crisis with Iran dates back to at least 2002 when a secret uranium enrichment facility was first revealed.
  • In 2015, Iran struck a nuclear deal with the Obama administration and other world powers, but the U.S. withdrew from the agreement in 2018 under President Trump.
  • Last June, Israel and the U.S. conducted more limited airstrikes against Iran's nuclear capabilities.

The players

Reid Pauly

An assistant professor of political science, nuclear security and policy at Brown University, and an expert on nuclear proliferation who has written extensively on international affairs, nuclear weapons, and nuclear strategy.

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei

The former Supreme Leader of Iran who was killed in the recent military strikes.

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What they’re saying

“The history of foreign-imposed regime change through military force is pessimistic in general. It often doesn't go well, or the costs are much higher than leaders anticipated when they started it. Rarely does it end up in a democratic government taking over.”

— Reid Pauly, Assistant Professor of Political Science (Mirage News)

What’s next

Pauly suggests the most likely outcome is that the air campaign fails to topple the Iranian government, potentially leading to a more repressive regime that accelerates its pursuit of nuclear weapons to prevent future foreign interventions.

The takeaway

The escalating military conflict between the U.S., Israel, and Iran raises serious concerns about the potential for a wider regional war and the long-term implications for Iran's nuclear program and political stability, underscoring the complex and high-stakes nature of this crisis.