Rhode Island's Population Growth Slows as Deaths Outpace Births

Migration fuels state's population increase, but sputtering growth puts congressional seat at risk

Jan. 28, 2026 at 3:23pm

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Rhode Island's population has grown by 1.6% to just over 1.1 million residents in the past five years, but the increase has been driven largely by international migration as deaths have outnumbered births in the state. The state's population growth has slowed to 0.4% in 2025, slightly worse than the national rate of 0.5%, raising concerns that Rhode Island could lose one of its two U.S. House seats after the 2030 Census.

Why it matters

Rhode Island's slowing population growth has resulted in the state slipping in national rankings, moving from 43rd largest in 2020 to being surpassed by Montana. This could put the state's representation in Congress at risk, as demographers forecast Rhode Island will likely lose one of its two U.S. House seats after the 2030 Census.

The details

The state's total population rose 1.6% to just over 1.1 million residents in the past five years, but this increase was driven largely by international migration as deaths outnumbered births. Nearly 31,000 people moved into Rhode Island through international migration, offsetting a modest decline in domestic migration. However, there have been about 57,000 deaths and 53,000 births in Rhode Island so far this decade, resulting in a natural population decline of nearly 4,000 people.

  • Rhode Island's population started rising more quickly following anemic growth during the COVID-19 pandemic.
  • Growth sputtered to 0.4% in 2025, slightly worse than the national rate of 0.5%.
  • The decline in international migration comes amid aggressive anti-immigration policies rolled out under the Trump administration.

The players

Jonathan Cervas

A researcher at Carnegie Mellon University who posted a widely circulated apportionment forecast on social media, based on the 2025 population numbers.

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What they’re saying

“Small differences can lead to states gaining or losing a seat.”

— Jonathan Cervas

What’s next

The forecast that Rhode Island will lose one of its two U.S. House seats starting the 2032 election is 'extremely sensitive' to data changes, according to Cervas, and small differences can lead to states gaining or losing a seat.

The takeaway

Rhode Island's slowing population growth, driven by a natural decline as deaths outpace births, has put the state's congressional representation at risk. The state will need to focus on policies and initiatives to boost its population in the coming years to avoid losing a U.S. House seat after the 2030 Census.