US Leading Economic Index Declines for Fifth Straight Month

Signals potential slowdown in economic activity, despite mixed signals from other indicators

Published on Feb. 25, 2026

Got story updates? Submit your updates here. ›

The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the US fell by 0.2% in December 2025, marking the fifth consecutive monthly decline. This continued weakness suggests economic activity may soften in early 2026, even as the Coincident Economic Index (CEI) rose and the Lagging Economic Index (LAG) edged down.

Why it matters

The LEI is designed to anticipate turning points in the business cycle, so its recent decline signals potential headwinds for the US economy. While the CEI indicates current conditions remain positive, the softening LAG suggests past economic strength is beginning to wane, raising concerns about the trajectory of growth.

The details

Several factors are contributing to the LEI's decline, including persistently weak consumer expectations, a softening ISM® New Orders Index, and mixed labor market data. The ten components of the LEI, which include manufacturing, housing, financial, and consumer indicators, provide a broad view of the economy's performance.

  • The LEI fell by 0.2% in December 2025.
  • This marked the fifth consecutive monthly decline in the LEI.

The players

The Conference Board

A non-profit research organization that publishes economic indicators, including the Leading Economic Index (LEI), Coincident Economic Index (CEI), and Lagging Economic Index (LAG).

Justyna Zabinska-La Monica

Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators at The Conference Board.

Got photos? Submit your photos here. ›

What they’re saying

“Alongside a rise in building permits, positive contributions to the LEI in December were led by the index's financial components, with the yield spread notably turning positive in both November and December.”

— Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators (The Conference Board)

What’s next

The Conference Board projects a slowdown in economic growth, forecasting GDP to expand by 2.1% year-over-year in 2026, slightly down from a forecasted 2.2% in 2025. Businesses should prepare for a more challenging economic environment, while consumers may want to exercise caution with spending and investment decisions.

The takeaway

The combination of a declining LEI and a slowing LAG suggests the US economy may be headed for a slowdown, despite the CEI's continued, albeit slower, growth. Monitoring these economic indicators can help businesses and investors make more informed decisions in the face of an uncertain economic outlook.