Breast Cancer Cases Projected to Rise by a Third Globally by 2050

Annual deaths from the disease forecast to surge 44%, with disproportionate impact in countries with limited resources

Mar. 3, 2026 at 4:55am

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A major new analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study Breast Cancer Collaborators, published in The Lancet Oncology, predicts that new breast cancer cases in women will rise by a third globally from 2.3 million in 2023 to more than 3.5 million in 2050. Similarly, yearly deaths from the disease are projected to surge 44%, from around 764,000 to 1.4 million, with disproportionate impact in countries with limited resources.

Why it matters

While those in high-income countries typically benefit from screening and more timely diagnosis and comprehensive treatment strategies, the mounting burden of breast cancer is shifting to low- and lower middle-income countries where individuals often face later-stage diagnosis, more limited access to quality care, and higher death rates that are threatening to eclipse progress in women's health.

The details

The new analysis provides an updated global, regional, and national analysis of the female breast cancer burden and risk factor estimates from 1990 to 2023 in 204 countries and territories, with forecasts up to 2050. The study also estimates the number of years of healthy life that women with breast cancer have lost to illness, disability, and premature death. Importantly, the findings suggest that maintaining a healthy lifestyle, including not smoking, getting sufficient physical activity, lowering red meat consumption, and having a healthy weight may prevent over a quarter of healthy years lost to illness and premature death due to breast cancer worldwide.

  • In 2023, there were an estimated 2.3 million new breast cancer cases and 764,000 deaths.
  • By 2050, the number of new breast cancer cases worldwide is predicted to rise by a third to over 3.5 million, and the annual global breast cancer death toll is forecast to increase by 44% to nearly 1.4 million.

The players

Kayleigh Bhangdia

Lead author from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), University of Washington, USA.

Olayinka Ilesanmi

A physician and epidemiologist from Nigeria working for the Africa CDC.

Marie Ng

Affiliate Associate Professor at IHME and Associate Professor at National University of Singapore.

Lisa Force

Co-senior author from IHME.

Yeon Hee Park

Professor from Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea (not involved in the study).

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What they’re saying

“Breast cancer continues to take a profound toll on women's lives and communities.”

— Kayleigh Bhangdia, Lead author

“LMICs are hit hardest by escalating breast cancer burden as many of these nations grapple with lifestyle and demographic changes alongside health systems that are less equipped than ideal to respond, with shortages of radiotherapy machines, chemotherapy drugs, and pathology labs, and standard treatments that can be quite costly.”

— Olayinka Ilesanmi, Physician and epidemiologist

“With more than a quarter of the global breast cancer burden linked to six modifiable lifestyle changes there are tremendous opportunities to alter the trajectory of breast cancer risk for the next generation.”

— Marie Ng, Affiliate Associate Professor

“Collaborative efforts are needed to ensure well-functioning health systems capable of early diagnosis and comprehensive treatment of breast cancer in all countries. Reducing the cost of breast cancer therapies and ensuring that universal health coverage includes breast cancer care essentials would also be valuable in protecting patients from catastrophic costs and improving outcomes.”

— Lisa Force, Co-senior author

“Without ethnic or genetic ancestry data, the study cannot distinguish whether observed regional differences reflect genetic predisposition, environmental exposures, health-care disparities, or combinations thereof...Despite these limitations, this study provides a necessary foundation for global health planning...With appropriate refinements, particularly ethnic and genetic ancestry stratification that acknowledges the distinctive molecular signatures of African, Asian, and other ethnic and genetic ancestry populations, this study can achieve its goal of informing evidence-based cancer control strategies worldwide.”

— Yeon Hee Park

What’s next

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The takeaway

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