CNN Data Guru Predicts Landslide Loss for Trump in 2024 Rematch

Harry Enten says Kamala Harris would defeat former President Trump by 8 points if the 2024 election were held today.

Feb. 18, 2026 at 11:55pm

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According to CNN's chief data correspondent Harry Enten, if the 2024 presidential election were held today, Vice President Kamala Harris would defeat former President Donald Trump in a landslide. Enten's analysis of polling data shows a significant shift in voter sentiment since the 2024 election, with Harris now leading Trump by 8 points in a hypothetical rematch.

Why it matters

Enten's analysis suggests that Trump's popularity has declined significantly during his second term, and that the Democratic base that voted for Harris in 2024 is sticking with Democratic congressional candidates to a much greater degree than Trump voters are sticking with Republicans. This could have major implications for the upcoming midterm elections.

The details

Enten told CNN host John Berman that a polled redo of the 2024 election shows Harris defeating Trump by a considerable margin, a stark contrast to Trump's narrow victory in the actual 2024 election. Enten also noted that voters who didn't vote in 2020 are projected to support Democrats by a 16-point margin in the upcoming midterms, compared to a 7-point margin for Trump in 2024.

  • In April 2025, a polled redo of the 2024 election showed Harris defeating Trump by a point.
  • In the actual 2024 election, Trump defeated Harris by a point.

The players

Harry Enten

CNN's chief data correspondent and polling expert.

Kamala Harris

The current Vice President of the United States and the Democratic nominee in the 2024 presidential election.

Donald Trump

The former President of the United States and the Republican nominee in the 2024 presidential election.

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What they’re saying

“Regrets of some folks—had a few,”

— Harry Enten, CNN's chief data correspondent

“Look at where we are now, according to an NBC News SurveyMonkey poll: She wins it by—get this—eight points. A massive shift from what we saw in November of 2024 when Donald Trump won by a point.”

— Harry Enten, CNN's chief data correspondent

“The fact is, the 2024 election is good, gone, goodbye. But it has a massive impact, this voter sentiment, on what may happen later this year.”

— Harry Enten, CNN's chief data correspondent

What’s next

Enten's analysis suggests that the upcoming midterm elections could be a major test for the Republican Party, as the data shows a significant shift in voter sentiment since the 2024 presidential election.

The takeaway

Enten's data-driven analysis paints a concerning picture for former President Trump's political future, as it suggests that his popularity has declined significantly during his second term and that the Democratic base that supported Kamala Harris in 2024 is more engaged and motivated than Trump's supporters.