Groundhogs Have Incredible Instincts—But Can They Really Predict the Weather?

A wildlife expert and a meteorologist weigh in on the accuracy of Punxsutawney Phil's Groundhog Day predictions.

Feb. 1, 2026 at 1:15pm

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As the seasons shift, few animals notice the change quite like the groundhog. Though Punxsutawney Phil's Groundhog Day predictions have become a beloved tradition, experts say there's no scientific evidence that groundhogs can actually predict the weather. However, the meteorologist interviewed gives Phil some credit, noting his recent predictions have been fairly accurate. The story also explores the incredible hibernation abilities of groundhogs and why the Groundhog Day tradition continues to captivate people.

Why it matters

The Groundhog Day tradition has endured for over 130 years, with Punxsutawney Phil's weather predictions becoming a beloved part of American culture. While the scientific validity of these predictions is questionable, the story explores why the tradition continues to resonate and the unique characteristics of groundhogs that make them well-suited for this role.

The details

According to wildlife expert Peter Gros, groundhogs are amazing hibernators, with their body temperature dropping from 99 to 37 degrees Fahrenheit and their heart rate slowing from 80 beats per minute to just 5 during hibernation. Despite this dramatic change, they only lose about a quarter of their body weight. Meteorologist Jill Szwed notes that while it's difficult for even professional meteorologists to predict the weather accurately, Punxsutawney Phil has actually been on a roll the last two years, correctly forecasting an early spring in 2024 and six more weeks of winter in 2025. However, Szwed still recommends relying on modern weather forecasting technology rather than Phil's predictions.

  • Around the time of the winter solstice, groundhogs begin to stir as they sense the change in temperature.
  • Groundhog Day is the midpoint of winter, falling on February 2 (though the exact midpoint is February 3 this year).

The players

Peter Gros

A wildlife expert and cohost of Mutual of Omaha's Wild Kingdom Protecting the Wild on NBC.

Jill Szwed

A meteorologist at WTAE-TV, Pittsburgh's Action News 4, based near Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania where the annual Groundhog Day celebration takes place.

Punxsutawney Phil

The most famous of the country's weather-prognosticating animals, who emerges from his burrow on Groundhog Day to declare an early spring or six more weeks of winter.

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What they’re saying

“We think that many animals that hibernate have sort of an internal clock triggered by changes in the length of daylight and climatic conditions, but there isn't any real scientific data that if he or she sees a shadow, then they go back down the hole for another six weeks, and if they don't see their shadow, they say, 'Okay, kids, it's time to grab the sunscreen, we're headed out.'”

— Peter Gros, Wildlife Expert

“It's difficult sometimes for even a meteorologist to predict the weather 24 hours in advance or a week ahead, but he's trying to predict the early arrival of spring all across the country. Sometimes the weather just sneaks up on us and Mother Nature throws us a monkey wrench.”

— Jill Szwed, Meteorologist

“A couple weeks ago, I met with two members of the Inner Circle of the Groundhog Club, and they were very proud to say that Phil is always 100% accurate with his predictions. So I will give them a round of applause for that one. They interpreted Phil's little winks and nods really well during his big moment on the plush red carpet at Gobbler's Knob.”

— Jill Szwed, Meteorologist

What’s next

Meteorologists will continue to monitor teleconnections like the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Arctic Oscillation to provide long-range forecasts for the remainder of the winter season.

The takeaway

While Punxsutawney Phil's Groundhog Day predictions have become a beloved tradition, modern weather forecasting technology provides more reliable information about upcoming weather patterns. However, the Groundhog Day ritual still captivates people by highlighting the unique abilities of groundhogs and the enduring appeal of folklore in the face of scientific uncertainty.