UK Birth Rate Decline Could Raise Pension Age to 75 by 2039

Got story updates? Submit your updates here. ›

A new report from the Centre for Social Justice warns that the UK's declining birth rate could force the government to raise the state pension age to 75 by 2039 in order to maintain the balance between pension recipients and working-age taxpayers. The think tank cites falling marriage rates, women postponing motherhood, and men maturing later as core drivers behind the fertility decline, which it says will have significant macroeconomic implications for the country's social safety net and economic dynamism.

Why it matters

Fertility patterns directly shape the size and age structure of the future workforce. A smaller working-age base raises costs for pensions and healthcare, potentially accelerating policy interventions like retirement age increases that are often politically unpopular. This demographic shift reflects a broader reordering of adulthood, with education taking longer, job markets demanding more preparation, and financial insecurity reshaping when people feel ready to commit to families.

The details

The CSJ report suggests 'pro-natal' measures like tax incentives to encourage family growth, but notes that improving marriage rates must come first. However, the author argues that structural supports for families - affordable housing, childcare, parental leave, job security - are more targeted and broadly acceptable than blunt incentives. The think tank warns that ongoing low fertility could compel raising the state pension age to 75 by 2039 to preserve the pension/working-age balance, a move that would significantly alter lifetime planning around savings, careers, and health expectations.

• The CSJ's latest briefing was published in April 2026.
• The report warns the pension age could hit 75 by 2039 if birth rate trends continue.

What’s next

The judge in the case will decide on Tuesday whether or not to allow Walker Reed Quinn out on bail.