Westpac Strategist Warns of AUD Ceiling Amid Hormuz Tensions

Franulovich sees $0.7100-$0.7150 as near-term resistance for the Australian dollar

Apr. 10, 2026 at 7:03am

Got story updates? Submit your updates here. ›

A visually striking abstract composition featuring bold geometric shapes in shades of blue, red, and yellow, conceptually representing the complex interplay between global events and the Australian dollar's performance as an economic indicator.Geopolitical uncertainty casts a shadow over the Australian dollar's outlook, as the currency's sensitivity to global dynamics is tested by tensions in the Strait of Hormuz.Today in Pittsburgh

The fate of the Australian dollar (AUD) hangs in the balance as geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to cloud its outlook. Westpac's Richard Franulovich, a seasoned FX strategist, has offered a nuanced perspective on the currency's trajectory, predicting that the AUD will face resistance in the $0.7100-$0.7150 range in the near term.

Why it matters

The AUD, being a risk-sensitive currency, is acutely vulnerable to shifts in global sentiment. Franulovich's analysis underscores the currency's role as a barometer of global stability, with the Strait of Hormuz's status as a critical energy chokepoint playing a key part in the AUD's outlook.

The details

Franulovich argues that the market needs to see the Strait of Hormuz fully and genuinely reopened before pricing in a sustained recovery for currencies like the AUD. The recent announcement of a two-week ceasefire has not yet provided the market with the assurance it needs for a more durable recovery in risk-sensitive currencies. Without a clear evolution towards a lasting agreement, the AUD is unlikely to experience a significant and sustained rally.

  • The recent announcement of a two-week ceasefire in the Strait of Hormuz.

The players

Richard Franulovich

A seasoned FX strategist at Westpac.

Got photos? Submit your photos here. ›

What they’re saying

“The market needs to see this critical waterway fully and genuinely reopened before pricing in a sustained recovery for currencies like the AUD.”

— Richard Franulovich, FX Strategist

What’s next

The judge in the case will decide on Tuesday whether or not to allow Walker Reed Quinn out on bail.

The takeaway

The AUD's sensitivity to global growth and commodity dynamics makes it uniquely exposed to Middle Eastern developments. The ongoing disruption in Hormuz, coupled with elevated oil prices and shipping uncertainties, creates a complex web of risks that limit the currency's upside potential.