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MLB Best Bets: Top Home Run Props for Monday 3/30/26
Garion Thorne details his top home run props for tonight's slate, including bets for James Wood, Addison Barger and Nick Kurtz.
Mar. 30, 2026 at 2:05pm
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A cubist interpretation of the high-stakes home run action across multiple MLB matchups.Philadelphia TodayGarion Thorne, a sports betting analyst, has identified his top three home run prop picks for Monday's MLB slate. The bets focus on James Wood facing Taijuan Walker of the Phillies, Addison Barger of the Blue Jays against Tomoyuki Sugano, and Nick Kurtz of the Giants against Bryce Elder of the Braves.
Why it matters
Home run props are a popular way for baseball fans to bet on the game, and Thorne's analysis provides insight into which players have the best chances of hitting a home run based on the pitching matchups and their recent performance.
The details
Thorne believes James Wood of the Phillies has a good chance of hitting a home run against Taijuan Walker, who has struggled with giving up home runs in recent seasons. He also likes Addison Barger of the Blue Jays to go deep against Tomoyuki Sugano, who has had issues with left-handed hitters. Finally, Thorne is high on Nick Kurtz of the Giants to hit a home run against Bryce Elder of the Braves, who has been prone to giving up the long ball at home.
- The article was published on March 30, 2026.
The players
James Wood
A player for the Phillies who has a 98th percentile expected wOBA on batted ball events.
Taijuan Walker
A right-handed pitcher for the Phillies who has been one of the most home run-prone pitchers in MLB over the past two seasons.
Addison Barger
A left-handed batter for the Blue Jays who had a 93rd percentile bat speed and 91st percentile hard hit rate in 2025.
Tomoyuki Sugano
A pitcher for the Blue Jays who gave up 2.13 home runs per nine innings to left-handed batters in his rookie season in North America.
Nick Kurtz
A player for the Giants who had a .336/.439/.714 slash line and .378 ISO against right-handed pitching in his rookie season.
Bryce Elder
A right-handed pitcher for the Braves who has struggled with a 5.59 ERA over the past two seasons and has been prone to giving up home runs at home.
What they’re saying
“It doesn't truly feel like baseball season is back until we're placing home runs props against Taijuan Walker.”
— Garion Thorne, Sports Betting Analyst
“This is the exact type of matchup where [James Wood] should thrive. One where it'll be near impossible to swing and miss.”
— Garion Thorne, Sports Betting Analyst
“Sugano gave up a whopping 2.13 home runs per nine to opposing LHBs. Woof.”
— Garion Thorne, Sports Betting Analyst
The takeaway
Thorne's home run prop picks highlight the importance of analyzing pitching matchups and player stats to identify the best betting opportunities in MLB. His analysis provides valuable insights for sports bettors looking to capitalize on favorable home run prop odds.
