Experts Warn of Potential for Civil Unrest Surrounding Elections

Simulation exercise conducted in 2024 foreshadowed tensions seen in Minneapolis protests

Jan. 29, 2026 at 9:07pm

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In 2024, experts at the University of Pennsylvania's Center for Ethics and the Rule of Law conducted a simulation exercise to examine the potential for civil unrest surrounding a presidential election. The scenario, which used Philadelphia as a test case, explored what would happen if a newly elected president illegally ordered the National Guard to intervene in protests. The experts say the tensions currently playing out in Minneapolis between federal and state authorities are similar to what their exercise modeled.

Why it matters

The simulation highlighted the risks of confrontation between federal and state authorities during times of civil unrest, which could potentially escalate to a clash between the National Guard and federal troops. This raises concerns about the stability of American democracy and the peaceful transition of power.

The details

The 2024 simulation involved more than three dozen national security, military, and election leaders. They examined a scenario where a newly elected president illegally ordered the National Guard to move in and stop protests. The experts say the current situation in Minneapolis, where federal agents have been accused of violating the law, is similar to what their exercise modeled. They warn that if federal agents continue to clash with state authorities, it could lead to a confrontation between the National Guard and federal troops, which they described as a "worst-case scenario."

  • The Center for Ethics and the Rule of Law at the University of Pennsylvania created the simulation exercise in 2024, before the presidential election.
  • The tensions in Minneapolis that the experts say resemble their simulation exercise have been ongoing since 2020.

The players

Center for Ethics and the Rule of Law

A research center at the University of Pennsylvania that conducted the 2024 simulation exercise examining the potential for civil unrest surrounding a presidential election.

Claire Finkelstein

The founder of the Center for Ethics and the Rule of Law, who spoke to Scripps News about the simulation exercise and its similarities to the current situation in Minneapolis.

Tom Homan

A former federal immigration enforcement official who has recently become involved in the Minneapolis situation.

Kristi Noem

The governor of South Dakota, who has been involved in the Minneapolis protests.

Tim Walz

The governor of Minnesota, who has been communicating with President Trump about the Minneapolis protests.

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What they’re saying

“We put together this exercise, want to be very clear, before the 2024 election. So we did not know who would be the next president, but one of the things we were concerned about was for the possibility of the very kind of tension that we're seeing between federal authorities and state authorities in situations in which you want them, you hope, that they will be working harmoniously together to deal with the tensions that have crept up between federal authorities and the people in widespread demonstrations.”

— Claire Finkelstein, Founder, Center for Ethics and the Rule of Law (Scripps News)

“There are signs that we may be facing an off-ramp, that things may be calming down. The fact that we have Tom Homan stepping in now, that possibly Kristi Noem is is taking more of a backseat, that we see a little bit more collaboration and the conversation between Governor Waltz and President Trump. These are all good signs. We want that communication to happen.”

— Claire Finkelstein, Founder, Center for Ethics and the Rule of Law (Scripps News)

What’s next

The experts say the risk of confrontation between federal and state authorities still exists, and they are closely monitoring the situation in Minneapolis for any further escalation.

The takeaway

The 2024 simulation exercise conducted by the Center for Ethics and the Rule of Law highlighted the potential for civil unrest and clashes between federal and state authorities surrounding a presidential election. The current tensions in Minneapolis reflect many of the same dynamics the experts had warned about, underscoring the fragility of American democracy and the need for strong communication and coordination between all levels of government.