Inflation Remains High for Key Expenses Despite Overall Improvement

Experts raise concerns about the accuracy of inflation data and its impact on millions struggling to afford basics

Published on Feb. 15, 2026

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While the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report shows a 2.4% year-over-year increase, indicating improving inflation, the data masks significant price hikes in critical areas like food, shelter, utilities, and medical care that are putting a strain on many Americans. Experts note issues with the CPI methodology, including the exclusion of certain costs and adjustments that may be understating the true impact of inflation on household budgets.

Why it matters

Accurate inflation data is crucial for policymakers, businesses, and consumers to make informed decisions. However, the discrepancy between the headline CPI number and the reality faced by many Americans on essential expenses raises concerns about the reliability of the official statistics and their ability to capture the true cost-of-living challenges experienced by millions.

The details

The CPI calculation is a complex process that tracks the prices of a basket of goods and services, but it can overlook important factors. For example, the CPI excludes the rising costs of electricity transmission and delivery, which are not captured in the electricity price data. Additionally, the government shutdown in October 2025 resulted in the "zeroing out of many price hikes" and adjustments to seasonal factors, potentially further distorting the inflation picture.

  • The January 2026 CPI report showed a 2.4% year-over-year increase.
  • In the fourth quarter of 2025, student loan balances jumped by $11 billion, reaching $1.66 trillion, with 9.6% of balances at least 90 days delinquent.

The players

Donald Trump

The US President who spoke on inflation at Mount Airy Casino Resort in Mount Pocono, Pennsylvania.

Diane Swonk

The KPMG Chief Economist who noted issues with the October 2025 government shutdown and seasonal adjustments in the CPI data.

Matt Randolph

A Forbes energy contributor who goes by the name "Mr Global" on social media and pointed out that the CPI electricity prices do not capture additional transmission and delivery costs.

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What they’re saying

“It is important to note that electricity prices differ from electricity bills, as bills include additional costs such as transmission and delivery, which have also risen significantly nationwide.”

— Matt Randolph, Forbes energy contributor (Forbes)

“The October government shutdown saw a loss of data, resulting in a 'zeroing out of many price hikes in October,' and that an update to seasonal factors avoided 'the usual bump in January'.”

— Diane Swonk, KPMG Chief Economist (X)

What’s next

Policymakers and statistical agencies may need to re-evaluate the CPI methodology to ensure it more accurately reflects the real-world experiences of American households, especially regarding essential expenses.

The takeaway

While the headline CPI number suggests improving inflation, the reality is that millions of Americans continue to struggle with rising costs for fundamental needs like food, housing, utilities, and healthcare. Addressing the limitations of the CPI data and its impact on policy decisions is crucial for supporting those most affected by the persistent high inflation in key areas of household budgets.