US EIA Raises 2026 Natural Gas Price Forecast by 40%

Large withdrawals from gas storage due to Winter Storm Fern cited as reason for increase

Published on Feb. 11, 2026

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The US Energy Information Administration has increased its natural gas price projection for 2026 by 40% due to large withdrawals from gas storage caused by Winter Storm Fern. The forecast now assumes the Henry Hub spot price will average about $4.30/MMBtu this year and almost $4.40/MMBtu in 2027, up from the previous projection of $3.46 for 2026.

Why it matters

The significant increase in the EIA's natural gas price forecast for 2026 reflects the impact that extreme weather events can have on energy markets and supply. The large withdrawals from gas storage during Winter Storm Fern highlight the vulnerability of the natural gas system to disruptions, which could lead to higher prices for consumers and businesses.

The details

According to the EIA, natural gas averaged $2.19 in 2025 and $3.53 in 2025. Frigid weather conditions across the United States led to a 3% drop in U.S. natural gas production from December to January, though the EIA expects production to rebound in February as producers increase drilling activity in response to the higher prices.

  • The EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook was released on February 11, 2026.
  • Natural gas prices are projected to average $4.30/MMBtu in 2026 and $4.40/MMBtu in 2027.

The players

US Energy Information Administration

The U.S. Energy Information Administration is the statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy.

Winter Storm Fern

A severe winter storm that led to large withdrawals from natural gas storage, contributing to the EIA's price forecast increase.

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The takeaway

The EIA's revised natural gas price forecast underscores the importance of energy infrastructure resilience and the need to prepare for the impacts of extreme weather events on energy markets. This price increase could have significant implications for consumers and businesses reliant on natural gas.