Oregon Releases Q1 Economic Outlook and Revenue Forecast

State economists present improved economic data and revenue projections to legislative committee

Feb. 4, 2026 at 6:15pm

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The Department of Administrative Services Office of Economic Analysis in Oregon presented the latest quarterly economic outlook and revenue forecast to the state's legislative committee on finance and revenue. The Q1 March forecast shows improvement in economic conditions and tax collections compared to previous estimates, reducing recession risks and pointing to positive labor market trends.

Why it matters

The state's economic outlook and revenue projections are critical inputs to the Oregon budgeting process, helping policymakers make informed decisions about spending, taxation, and other fiscal matters that impact residents. This latest forecast provides an updated snapshot of the state's economic health and fiscal position.

The details

The Q1 March forecast presented by State Chief Economist Carl Riccadonna and Senior Economist Michael Kennedy highlighted several key factors contributing to the improved outlook, including the return to normal federal government data releases following last fall's shutdown, stronger-than-expected corporate income tax collections, and resources carried over from the prior budget period. These factors, along with continued economic resilience and the impact of monetary and fiscal stimulus, have reduced recession risks and point to positive labor market conditions going forward.

  • The quarterly revenue forecasts were presented on Wednesday, February 4, 2026.
  • The Q1 March economic outlook and revenue forecast covers the first quarter of 2026.

The players

Carl Riccadonna

State Chief Economist at the Department of Administrative Services Office of Economic Analysis.

Michael Kennedy

Senior Economist at the Department of Administrative Services Office of Economic Analysis.

Department of Administrative Services Office of Economic Analysis

The state agency responsible for providing objective forecasts of Oregon's economy, revenue, populations, and other key metrics used in the state budgeting process.

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What’s next

The state legislature will use the Q1 March economic outlook and revenue forecast to inform their budgeting decisions for the upcoming fiscal year.

The takeaway

Oregon's latest economic forecast points to an improving fiscal outlook for the state, with reduced recession risks and positive labor market trends. This data will be critical for policymakers as they work to allocate resources and plan the state's budget in the coming year.