Urgent Action Needed to Avert 'Hothouse Earth' Scenario

Scientists warn multiple climate tipping points are closer than previously believed, putting the planet at risk of catastrophic feedback loops.

Published on Feb. 12, 2026

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A new analysis by an international team of scientists led by Oregon State University's William Ripple warns that multiple Earth system components appear closer to destabilization than previously believed, putting the planet in increased danger of following a 'hothouse' path driven by feedback loops that can amplify the consequences of global warming. The researchers say current data, coupled with the inherent uncertainties of climate forecasting, should be taken as a signal that urgent climate mitigation and adaptation strategies are needed.

Why it matters

The researchers note that nearly 10 years after the Paris Agreement, which sought to limit long-term average warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels, global temperature increases have already exceeded that threshold for 12 consecutive months. This indicates the long-term average temperature increase is at or near 1.5 degrees, and that climate change is advancing faster than many scientists predicted. Crossing even some of the identified tipping point thresholds could commit the planet to a 'hothouse' trajectory with long-lasting and possibly irreversible consequences.

The details

The analysis synthesizes scientific findings on climate feedback loops and 16 tipping elements - Earth subsystems that may undergo loss of stability if critical temperature thresholds are passed. These include ice sheets in Antarctica and Greenland, mountain glaciers, sea ice, boreal forests and permafrost, the Amazon rainforest and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a key influencer of global climate. The researchers say these sharp changes could likely result in a cascade of subsystem interactions that would steer the planet toward extreme warming and sea level rise - conditions that could be difficult to reverse on human timescales, even with deep emissions cuts.

  • Global temperature increases have exceeded 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels for 12 consecutive months.
  • Carbon dioxide levels are the highest they've been in at least 2 million years, at more than 420 parts per million - about 50% higher than prior to the Industrial Revolution.

The players

William Ripple

Distinguished professor of ecology in the OSU College of Forestry and lead author of the analysis.

Christopher Wolf

Former OSU postdoctoral researcher who is now a scientist with Corvallis-based Terrestrial Ecosystems Research Associates (TERA) and a co-author of the analysis.

Jillian Gregg

Scientist with TERA and co-author of the analysis.

Johan Rockström

Co-author of the analysis and researcher at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.

Katherine Richardson

Co-author of the analysis and researcher at the University of Copenhagen.

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What they’re saying

“After a million years of oscillating between ice ages separated by warmer periods, the Earth's climate stabilized more than 11,000 years ago, enabling agriculture and complex societies. We're now moving away from that stability and could be entering a period of unprecedented climate change.”

— William Ripple, Distinguished professor of ecology, OSU College of Forestry (Mirage News)

“Temperature limit exceedance is usually evaluated using 20-year averages, but climate model simulations suggest the recent 12-month breach indicates the long-term average temperature increase is at or near 1.5 degrees. It's likely that global temperatures are as warm as, or warmer than, at any point in the last 125,000 years and that climate change is advancing faster than many scientists predicted.”

— Christopher Wolf, Scientist, Terrestrial Ecosystems Research Associates (Mirage News)

“Uncertain tipping thresholds underscore the importance of precaution - crossing even some of those thresholds could commit the planet to a hothouse trajectory with long-lasting and possibly irreversible consequences. Policymakers and the public remain largely unaware of the risks posed by what would effectively be a point-of-no-return transition.”

— Christopher Wolf, Scientist, Terrestrial Ecosystems Research Associates (Mirage News)

What’s next

The researchers say existing climate mitigation approaches, including scaling up renewable energy and protecting carbon-storing ecosystems, are critical to limit the increase in global temperatures. Strategies that embed climate resilience into governmental policy frameworks should also be a priority, along with a socially just phaseout of fossil fuels. The scientists also discuss the need for novel approaches, including coordinated global tipping-point monitoring and better plans for managing risk.

The takeaway

This analysis underscores the urgent need for comprehensive and coordinated global action to address the rapidly accelerating climate crisis. Crossing critical tipping points could lead to catastrophic and potentially irreversible consequences, making it imperative that policymakers and the public heed the warnings from the scientific community and take immediate, bold steps to mitigate and adapt to the worsening impacts of climate change.