Experts Warn 'Warflation' Will Impact More Than Just Gas Prices

Economists predict widespread economic disruption from Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Apr. 12, 2026 at 6:02pm

Got story updates? Submit your updates here. ›

An abstract illustration composed of overlapping triangles, rectangles, and circles in shades of blue, red, and yellow, conceptually representing the complex economic forces of 'warflation' impacting the global economy.Geometric shapes and colors illustrate the widespread economic disruption from the Russia-Ukraine conflict.Oklahoma City Today

Economists are warning that the economic fallout from Russia's invasion of Ukraine, dubbed 'warflation', will impact a wide range of consumer goods and services beyond just rising gas prices. Factors like supply chain disruptions, energy price spikes, and geopolitical uncertainty are expected to drive up inflation across many sectors of the economy.

Why it matters

The 'warflation' phenomenon could significantly erode consumer purchasing power and lead to a broader economic slowdown, impacting both businesses and households. Policymakers are grappling with how to mitigate the cascading effects of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the global economy.

The details

Experts say the economic shockwaves from the war in Ukraine will reverberate far beyond the energy sector, driving up prices for everything from food to consumer electronics. Disruptions to agricultural exports from the region, as well as higher costs for fertilizers and other inputs, are expected to push up grocery bills. Supply chain bottlenecks stemming from the conflict will also contribute to shortages and price hikes for a wide range of manufactured goods.

  • The 'warflation' trend emerged in the weeks following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
  • Economists warn the impacts of 'warflation' could persist for at least the next 12-18 months.

The players

Federal Reserve

The U.S. central bank that is responsible for monetary policy and working to control inflation.

Russia

The country that invaded Ukraine in February 2022, triggering a global economic crisis.

Ukraine

The country that was invaded by Russia, disrupting global trade and supply chains.

Got photos? Submit your photos here. ›

What they’re saying

“The economic fallout from the war in Ukraine is going to be felt far beyond just gas prices. We're looking at widespread inflation across many sectors as supply chains are disrupted and uncertainty reigns.”

— Dr. Samantha Jacobson, Economist, University of Oklahoma

“Policymakers are in a very difficult position, trying to rein in inflation without triggering a full-blown recession. The 'warflation' dynamic makes their job that much harder.”

— Jack Lemoyne, Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution

What’s next

The Federal Reserve is expected to continue raising interest rates in an effort to cool demand and bring inflation under control, though the effectiveness of this approach is uncertain given the global nature of the 'warflation' pressures.

The takeaway

The economic shockwaves from the Russia-Ukraine war are set to impact a wide range of consumer goods and services, eroding household purchasing power and posing significant challenges for policymakers trying to navigate the complex 'warflation' dynamic.