Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Dominates MVP Race as Injuries Sideline Rivals

The NBA's 65-game eligibility rule has reshaped the MVP conversation, clearing the path for the Thunder star's second straight award.

Apr. 4, 2026 at 3:52pm

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With a week left in the NBA regular season, Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has emerged as the clear frontrunner for his second consecutive MVP award. Injuries to top contenders like Luka Doncic and Cade Cunningham have eliminated them from eligibility under the league's 65-game rule, leaving Gilgeous-Alexander as the overwhelming favorite at -2000 odds.

Why it matters

The 65-game rule was intended to promote competition, but it has instead flattened what was once a layered MVP race. While Gilgeous-Alexander has undoubtedly earned his position, the lack of flexibility in the rule has removed legitimate challengers and turned the award into more of an eligibility contest than a true measure of value.

The details

Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 31.6 points, 6.5 assists, and 4.4 rebounds while shooting over 55 percent from the field, leading the Thunder to a 61-16 record, the best in the Western Conference. Meanwhile, injuries have sidelined Luka Doncic, Cade Cunningham, and other top MVP candidates, making them ineligible under the 65-game rule.

  • With roughly a week left in the regular season, the MVP race has been reshaped by recent injuries.
  • Luka Doncic suffered a Grade 2 left hamstring strain on April 4, 2026, ruling him out for the rest of the regular season and possibly the playoffs.
  • Cade Cunningham will miss the rest of the regular season due to a collapsed lung, finishing with 61 games played and making him ineligible for the MVP award.

The players

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

The star guard for the Oklahoma City Thunder, who is now the overwhelming favorite to win his second consecutive NBA MVP award.

Luka Doncic

The Los Angeles Lakers star who was a top MVP contender but will miss the rest of the regular season due to a Grade 2 left hamstring strain.

Cade Cunningham

The Detroit Pistons star who had built a strong MVP case but will miss the rest of the regular season due to a collapsed lung, making him ineligible for the award.

Victor Wembanyama

The San Antonio Spurs center who is the next closest challenger to Gilgeous-Alexander in the MVP race, with +850 odds.

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What they’re saying

“The NBA introduced the 65-game rule to limit load management and increase player availability. On paper, the intent made sense. In reality, the result has been different.”

— Jalon Dixon, Author

What’s next

With less than 10 days remaining in the regular season, the NBA will monitor Gilgeous-Alexander's continued performance and determine if any appeals or exceptions can be made to the 65-game rule for the other top MVP candidates.

The takeaway

The NBA's 65-game eligibility rule, intended to promote competition, has instead flattened the MVP race and turned it into more of an availability contest than a true measure of a player's value. While Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has undoubtedly earned his position as the frontrunner, the lack of flexibility in the rule has removed legitimate challengers and raised questions about the award's broader significance.