NBA Analyst Doubts Luka Dončić's MVP Chances Due to 'Bad' Pre-All-Star Break Defense

Jason Timpf believes the Lakers star has 'zero shot' at the award this season.

Mar. 31, 2026 at 3:24pm

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A fragmented, geometric painting in bold colors depicting a basketball game or match, with overlapping shapes and planes representing the complex factors surrounding Luka Dončić's MVP chances.A cubist interpretation of the ongoing debate around Luka Dončić's MVP candidacy, deconstructing the star's defensive play and offensive dominance.Oklahoma City Today

NBA analyst Jason Timpf has expressed doubts about Luka Dončić's chances of winning the MVP award this season, citing the Lakers star's 'bad' defensive play before the All-Star break. Timpf argues that voters will consider Dončić's full-season performance, not just his improved defense after the break. The Slovenian guard has been one of the frontrunners for the award, along with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Nikola Jokić, and Victor Wembanyama.

Why it matters

Dončić's MVP candidacy has been a major storyline this season, with the Lakers star putting up impressive numbers and leading his team to a potential 50-win season. Timpf's comments highlight the ongoing debate around Dončić's defensive play and how it may impact his chances of winning the award.

The details

Speaking on his 'Hoops Tonight' podcast, analyst Jason Timpf said that Dončić has 'zero shot to win the MVP this year' due to his 'bad' defensive play before the All-Star break. Timpf argues that while Dončić has improved on defense since the break, voters will consider his full-season performance, which includes the early defensive struggles. The analyst believes Wembanyama and Jokić are ahead of Dončić in the defensive aspect, which could hurt the Lakers star's MVP chances.

  • Dončić missed Monday's game against the Wizards to serve a mandatory suspension for his 16th technical foul of the season.
  • The Lakers take on the Cavaliers on the second night of a back-to-back at home on Tuesday.
  • The Lakers later hit the road for a two-game stretch, taking on the OKC Thunder and the Dallas Mavericks before returning home to host the Thunder again.

The players

Luka Dončić

The Los Angeles Lakers superstar and one of the frontrunners for the NBA MVP award this season, averaging 33.7 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 8.2 assists per game in 62 appearances.

Jason Timpf

An NBA analyst who hosts the 'Hoops Tonight' podcast and has expressed doubts about Dončić's chances of winning the MVP award this season.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

The Oklahoma City Thunder guard, another frontrunner for the NBA MVP award this season.

Nikola Jokić

The Denver Nuggets center, a frontrunner for the NBA MVP award this season.

Victor Wembanyama

The San Antonio Spurs rookie, a frontrunner for the NBA MVP award this season.

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What they’re saying

“Luka has zero shot to win the MVP this year. Luka has been great on defense post-All-Star break, but he was bad on defense before that.”

— Jason Timpf, NBA Analyst

“If we continue to finish the season the way we're playing right now, and he continues to play that way, to me, he is the MVP. I think when we started 15-4, you could have made an argument that he was the MVP then. Well, he's been the MVP for two of the three segments of the season.”

— JJ Redick, Lakers Head Coach

What’s next

The Lakers take on the Cavaliers on the second night of a back-to-back at home on Tuesday, followed by a two-game road trip to face the OKC Thunder and the Dallas Mavericks before returning home to host the Thunder again.

The takeaway

Dončić's MVP candidacy has been a major talking point this season, with his defensive play being a key factor in the ongoing debate. Timpf's comments highlight the challenges Dončić may face in winning the award, as voters will likely consider his full-season performance, including his early defensive struggles. However, the Lakers star's impressive offensive numbers and his team's potential 50-win season could still make him a strong contender for the MVP award.