Warmer Weather on the Way After Polar Vortex Blast

Gradual warm-up expected across much of the U.S. in the coming weeks

Published on Feb. 7, 2026

Got story updates? Submit your updates here. ›

While forecasters can't yet say for sure, a warmer stretch of weather appears likely for much of the nation in the coming weeks, with a gradual moderation in temperatures expected to develop during the second week of February across the Midwest and eastern United States. However, lingering snow and ice will slow the warming process and keep winter-related risks in place.

Why it matters

A strong polar vortex is good news for warm weather lovers in the U.S., as it typically keeps the bitterly cold air bottled up over the Arctic. When the polar vortex weakens, it can allow that frigid air to funnel south into the U.S., leading to the kind of extreme cold snap recently experienced. The upcoming warm-up will provide much-needed relief after the polar vortex blast.

The details

According to forecasts, a gradual moderation in temperatures is expected to develop during the second week of February across the Midwest and eastern U.S. The Plains will see the greatest temperature anomalies, with highs 20-30 degrees above normal for early February, potentially reaching the 60s in Montana and South Dakota. While temperatures may moderate somewhat as the week progresses, they are still expected to be at or slightly above normal across much of the South, Southeast, and Mid-Atlantic.

  • The warm-up is expected to develop during the second week of February (Feb. 9-15).
  • Temperatures in the Plains are forecast to be 20-30 degrees above normal on Monday, Feb. 9 and Tuesday, Feb. 10.

The players

AccuWeather

A private weather forecasting company that provides weather data, news, and analysis.

NOAA's Weather Prediction Center (WPC)

A division of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration that provides weather forecasts and analysis.

Brett Anderson

A senior meteorologist at AccuWeather.

Alex Sosnowski

A senior meteorologist at AccuWeather.

Jonathan Erdman

A meteorologist at Weather.com.

Got photos? Submit your photos here. ›

What they’re saying

“As the polar vortex strengthens next week, the jet stream will become strong, but in a general west-to-east setup over the U.S. and southern Canada. As this happens, Pacific air will tend to flow across the U.S., and the air will end up being much less cold than recent weeks in the central and eastern states.”

— Brett Anderson, Senior Meteorologist (AccuWeather)

“Given the amount of ice on area streams and rivers, the last thing anyone would want is a massive warmup with heavy rain all at once. Such a condition in January 1996 resulted in major ice jams and river flooding as the snow cover melted in a matter of hours. The upcoming thaw looks to be more gradual and less intense than in 1996 — for now.”

— Alex Sosnowski, Senior Meteorologist (AccuWeather)

“We do expect temperatures to rise above freezing in much of the Interstate 95 corridor by Tuesday (Feb. 10). But, in general, the warm-up in the Northeast will be relatively muted compared to the rest of the South and central U.S. during the week.”

— Jonathan Erdman, Meteorologist (Weather.com)

What’s next

Forecasters will continue to monitor the progression of the warm-up and provide updates on when the warmer weather is expected to arrive in different regions of the country.

The takeaway

After an extended period of bitter cold and a polar vortex blast, the upcoming gradual warm-up across much of the U.S. will provide welcome relief, though the Northeast may see a more muted improvement compared to other parts of the country. Careful monitoring of the thaw is needed to avoid potential issues like ice jams and flooding.