2025 Beef Production Forecast Revised Up on Recent Data

Carcass weights and imports expected to increase in 2026

Published on Feb. 3, 2026

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Based on preliminary slaughter data for December 2025, the forecast for fourth-quarter 2025 beef production has been raised 50 million pounds. The change reflects a marginal increase in fed cattle and cow slaughter that offsets a decline in bull slaughter. Total 2025 commercial beef production is estimated at 26 billion pounds, down 4% from 2024. The 2026 beef production forecast has been raised 10 million pounds to 25.735 billion pounds, a 1% decline from 2025, due to expectations of heavier carcass weights.

Why it matters

The revised production forecasts provide insights into the health and direction of the U.S. cattle industry, which is a major component of the nation's agricultural economy. Factors like slaughter rates, carcass weights, and trade policies can significantly impact beef supply and prices, affecting consumers, producers, and the broader food industry.

The details

The December 1 feedlot inventory was about 2% below the prior year, with feedlot net placements in November down over 11%. However, market-ready supplies in the top three cattle feeding states were at elevated levels compared to last year. This is expected to result in reduced marketings in the second half of 2026, offset by heavier carcass weights. Recent global trade policy changes, including new quotas for the UK and China's beef safeguard, are also expected to impact U.S. beef imports and exports in 2026.

  • In December 2025, preliminary slaughter data showed a marginal increase in fed cattle and cow slaughter.
  • On January 1, 2026, the U.S. tariff-rate quota for countries without a specific quota or free trade agreement decreased to 52,005 metric tons, while a new 13,000 metric ton quota was established for the United Kingdom.
  • In late 2025, China announced beef safeguard quotas and a 55% overquota tariff rate, which may limit beef exports to China from countries like Brazil, Australia, and Argentina.
  • Mexico recently announced a new 70,000 metric ton quota for beef imports from countries without a free trade agreement, which could impact Brazil's beef shipments to Mexico.

The players

USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS)

The statistical agency of the U.S. Department of Agriculture that publishes the Cattle on Feed report and other agricultural data.

U.S. Customs and Border Protection

The federal agency responsible for managing and securing U.S. borders, including monitoring and reporting on import quotas.

Brazil

A major global beef exporter that may face increased competition and trade barriers in key markets like China and Mexico.

Australia

Another major beef exporter that could be impacted by China's new beef safeguard policies.

Argentina

A significant beef exporter that may also face trade restrictions in China due to the new beef safeguard.

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What’s next

The USDA NASS will release the Cattle report on January 30, which will provide further insights into the calves available for placement in feedlots in the first half of 2026.

The takeaway

The beef industry is navigating a complex landscape of shifting production, trade policies, and market dynamics. The revised forecasts highlight the need for producers, policymakers, and consumers to stay informed on the evolving factors shaping the U.S. and global beef supply.