Severe Storm Potential in Southeast Oklahoma and Northeast Texas

Isolated storms possible this morning, with greater severe threat expected later in the day

Published on Mar. 9, 2026

Got story updates? Submit your updates here. ›

The National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center has issued a Mesoscale Discussion for parts of southeast Oklahoma, northeast Texas, Arkansas, and northwest Louisiana, indicating the potential for isolated severe storms this morning. While watch issuance is considered unlikely in the short term, the storms could produce large hail and gusty winds. The severe threat is expected to increase later in the day across Arkansas and Mississippi as surface-based destabilization becomes more supportive of organized storm cells and clusters.

Why it matters

Severe weather can pose a significant threat to public safety, property, and infrastructure, so it's important for residents in the affected areas to stay vigilant and prepared. The Storm Prediction Center's Mesoscale Discussions help forecasters and emergency management officials anticipate and respond to potentially dangerous weather conditions.

The details

According to the Mesoscale Discussion, elevated convection has developed across parts of south-central and southeast Oklahoma this morning, within a low-level warm-advection regime and in advance of a weakening midlevel shortwave trough. Increasing moisture in the 850-700 mb layer, combined with relatively steep midlevel lapse rates, is resulting in MUCAPE values greater than 1000 J/kg from north Texas into Arkansas, which will aid in the development of potentially robust updrafts. While the coverage of storms through mid-morning remains somewhat uncertain due to only modest large-scale ascent associated with the weakening shortwave trough, the moderate mid/upper-level flow will support sufficient effective shear for some storm organization. Any sustained robust updrafts could become capable of producing large hail and locally gusty winds.

  • The Mesoscale Discussion is valid from 12:10 UTC to 14:15 UTC (7:10 AM to 9:15 AM CDT) on Monday, March 9, 2026.
  • The greatest severe potential is still expected from late morning into the afternoon across parts of Arkansas and Mississippi, when surface-based destabilization becomes more supportive of organized storm cells and/or clusters.

The players

Storm Prediction Center

A division of the National Weather Service that is responsible for issuing severe weather watches and warnings, as well as providing forecasts and analyses of severe weather potential.

Got photos? Submit your photos here. ›

What’s next

The Storm Prediction Center will continue to monitor the situation and provide updates as necessary. Residents in the affected areas should stay tuned to local weather forecasts and be prepared to take shelter if severe storms develop.

The takeaway

This Mesoscale Discussion highlights the importance of the Storm Prediction Center's role in identifying and communicating the potential for severe weather, allowing local authorities and residents to take appropriate preparedness measures. While the immediate severe threat may be isolated, the potential for more widespread and dangerous storms later in the day underscores the need for vigilance and readiness in the affected regions.