Cattle Prices Poised for Seasonal Decline, Feeder Cattle Spreads Widen

Analyst warns cattle producers to consider risk tolerance and satisfaction levels as historic highs may not be enough to lock in prices.

Published on Feb. 10, 2026

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Cattle analyst Christopher B. Swift discusses the seasonal tendency for lower live cattle prices into mid-May, based on Moore Research data. He notes a cartoon depicting a small line of buyers at $30 silver versus a long line at $100, and foresees a similar scenario in cattle where few are willing to sell at or near historic highs. Swift advises cattle producers to consider their risk tolerance and satisfaction levels when deciding whether to lock in prices. In the feeder cattle market, the curve is steepening to the back end, which is seen as detrimental to backgrounders but beneficial to cattle feeders who can buy discounted contracts. Swift also provides updates on the corn, energy, and bond markets.

Why it matters

This analysis provides valuable insights for cattle producers navigating the complex market dynamics, including seasonal price patterns, widening spreads, and the psychology of locking in profits at historic highs. Understanding these factors can help producers make more informed decisions about risk management and marketing strategies.

The details

Swift notes the Moore Research data shows a definitive seasonal tendency for lower live cattle prices into mid-May. He recommends cattle producers strongly consider this seasonality and make appropriate adjustments, while remaining vigilant for any exaggeration or voiding of the pattern. In the feeder cattle market, the steepening curve is seen as significantly detrimental to backgrounders, who will likely continue facing top dollar for purchases, while cattle feeders have an opportunity to buy discounted contracts 11 months out. Swift also highlights the potential for a $67 decline in feeder cattle prices unless new contract or index highs are reached, based on the contraction pattern in price swings.

  • The Moore Research data shows a definitive seasonal tendency for lower live cattle prices into mid-May.

The players

Christopher B. Swift

A cattle analyst who discusses market dynamics and provides recommendations for cattle producers.

Moore Research

A research firm that provides data on seasonal price tendencies in the cattle market.

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What they’re saying

“I noted a cartoon seen recently in which it shows a small line of people to buy silver at $30.00 and a great increase in buyers at $100.00. I can foresee a similar instance in cattle where few appear standing in line to market at, or near historic highs, but a long line in front of potentially lower prices.”

— Christopher B. Swift, Cattle Analyst (barchart.com)

The takeaway

This analysis highlights the importance for cattle producers to carefully consider their risk tolerance and satisfaction levels when deciding whether to lock in prices, even at historic highs. Understanding seasonal patterns and market dynamics can help producers make more informed decisions and potentially avoid being caught off guard by sudden price declines.