Oil Prices Swing Wildly as Trump Threatens Iran Over Hormuz Strait

Fears of supply disruptions and escalating tensions in the Middle East roil global energy markets.

Mar. 23, 2026 at 6:07am

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Oil prices seesawed in volatile trading on Monday as investors weighed the prospect of further escalation after President Donald Trump's ultimatum demanding that Iran reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face strikes on its energy infrastructure. Iran pushed back, saying it would consider electric plants and water facilities in the region "legitimate targets" if its electrical grid were struck. The situation in the Middle East is being described as "very severe" and worse than the oil shocks of the 1970s, with the Strait of Hormuz - a critical global oil chokepoint - largely blocked to commercial shipping.

Why it matters

The potential disruption of oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz has sent global energy markets into a frenzy, with oil prices swinging wildly and the gap between U.S. and international crude benchmarks widening to levels not seen in years. This volatility is fueling inflationary concerns and weighing on economic growth, underscoring the geopolitical risks surrounding concentrated global energy infrastructure.

The details

Oil prices initially fell but then pared losses, with international benchmark Brent crude gaining 0.23% to $112.42 per barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude up around 0.28% at $98.51 a barrel. Goldman Sachs sharply raised its oil price forecasts, expecting Brent to average $110 in March and April. The bank warned that if the Hormuz Strait remains at 5% of normal flows for 10 weeks, daily Brent prices could exceed the 2008 record of around $147 per barrel. Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz to most shipping traffic since the U.S.-Israel launched strikes on the country on Feb. 28.

  • On Saturday, President Donald Trump threatened to "obliterate" Tehran's power plants if it failed to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours.
  • Iran's Parliament spokesperson responded on Sunday, saying that critical infrastructure and energy facilities in the Gulf region could be "irreversibly destroyed" should Iranian power plants be attacked.

The players

Donald Trump

The President of the United States who issued an ultimatum to Iran over the Strait of Hormuz.

Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf

The spokesperson for Iran's Parliament who responded to Trump's threat by warning that critical infrastructure in the Gulf region could be destroyed if Iranian power plants are attacked.

Fatih Birol

The executive director of the International Energy Agency who warned that the situation in the Middle East is "very severe" and far worse than the two oil shocks in the 1970s, as well as the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on gas, put together.

Amrita Sen

The founder and director of Market Intelligence at Energy Aspects who said the U.S. will remain the most shielded from the oil supply risks due to its status as the world's largest producer and the administration's use of strategic reserves.

Chris Verrone

The chief market strategist at Strategas Research who said the widening gap between U.S. and international crude benchmarks may signal that the market is approaching "peak intensity of this oil crisis."

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What they’re saying

“We must not let individuals continue to damage private property in San Francisco.”

— Robert Jenkins, San Francisco resident

“Fifty years is such an accomplishment in San Francisco, especially with the way the city has changed over the years.”

— Gordon Edgar, grocery employee

What’s next

The judge in the case will decide on Tuesday whether or not to allow Walker Reed Quinn out on bail.

The takeaway

This case highlights growing concerns in the community about repeat offenders released on bail, raising questions about bail reform, public safety on SF streets, and if any special laws to govern autonomous vehicles in residential and commercial areas.