New Model Maps Frost's Impact on Corn More Accurately

Brazilian researchers develop remote sensing method to assess crop damage from extreme weather events.

Published on Feb. 14, 2026

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Brazilian researchers have developed a methodology that uses remote sensing to map the impact of frost on corn crops. This reduces exposure to climate risks and uncertainty regarding agricultural losses. The model allows users to customize a set of variables, making it useful for other crops in different agricultural contexts. The researchers mapped over 700,000 hectares of corn in western Paraná state and found that 70% of the crops were damaged by severe frosts in 2021.

Why it matters

Global grain production, particularly of corn, is concentrated in just a few countries, so fluctuations in harvests can affect prices and global supply. Climate change has led to more frequent extreme weather events like severe frosts that damage these critical crops. This new remote sensing method provides more accurate assessments of crop damage, which is crucial for farmers, insurers, and policymakers to plan and respond effectively.

The details

The scientists integrated optical remote sensing data from Sentinel-2 satellites with machine learning techniques to map corn crops and identify frost damage with 96% accuracy. They were able to reveal that 70% of the over 700,000 hectares of corn in western Paraná state were damaged by severe frosts in May-June 2021. This method, called GEEadas, can be customized for other crops and agricultural contexts to provide more reliable data on the impacts of extreme weather.

  • The severe frosts that damaged the corn crops occurred between May and June of 2021.
  • The study's findings were published in the December 2025 issue of the journal Remote Sensing Applications: Society and Environment.

The players

Marcos Adami

A researcher from the Earth Observation and Geoinformatics Division (DIOTG) of the National Institute for Space Research (INPE) and one of the authors of the study.

Michel Eustáquio Dantas Chaves

A professor at the Faculty of Sciences and Engineering at São Paulo State University (UNESP) in Tupã, and the first author of the study.

São Paulo Research Foundation (FAPESP)

A public institution that provided support for the research.

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What they’re saying

“A crop failure there greatly affects the lives of the people, most of whom depend on agribusiness. Developing this study is a way to provide tools that give answers and contribute to the planning of measures that help maintain this important activity.”

— Marcos Adami, Researcher, National Institute for Space Research (INPE)

“Producers still face a number of climatic uncertainties during the harvest, especially when there are extreme events, such as frost, which have social, economic, and environmental impacts. In such cases, it's necessary to identify how much of the crop has been affected in order to inform the farmer, the banks that grant credit, or institutional bodies. This method provides accuracy, indicating the affected area and reducing uncertainties.”

— Michel Eustáquio Dantas Chaves, Professor, São Paulo State University (UNESP)

What’s next

The researchers are working with the National Supply Company (CONAB) in the states of Rio Grande do Sul, Paraná, and São Paulo to develop more methodologies and collect data to obtain more accurate crop yield figures.

The takeaway

This new remote sensing-based model provides a more accurate and comprehensive way to assess the impact of extreme weather events like frost on critical food crops like corn. This can help farmers, insurers, and policymakers better plan for and respond to the effects of climate change on agricultural production.