Physicists Forecast Cadmium Telluride PV Boom

Researchers see significant growth potential for this solar energy technology in the U.S.

Jan. 27, 2026 at 11:55pm

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A team of scientists, including researchers from the University of Toledo, have published an analysis in the journal Joule that forecasts a boom in cadmium telluride photovoltaics (CdTe PV) in the United States. The researchers believe CdTe PV technology, which currently makes up about 16% of the U.S. solar power generation portfolio, has the potential to reach a manufacturing capacity of 100 gigawatts by 2030 due to factors like improved power conversion efficiency and domestic supply chain advantages.

Why it matters

Cadmium telluride photovoltaics have long shown promise as a reliable, low-cost and high-efficiency alternative to the currently dominant crystalline silicon solar modules. While CdTe PV has carved out a niche in utility-scale solar deployment, its growth has been limited by factors like lower power conversion efficiency and supply chain challenges. This new research suggests those barriers are being overcome, paving the way for significant expansion of this domestic solar technology.

The details

The analysis was conducted by a team of scientists from the University of Toledo, the U.S. Department of Energy's National Laboratory of the Rockies, the Missouri University of Science and Technology, Colorado State University, Sivananthan Labs and First Solar. They believe advancements in areas like power conversion efficiency and tellurium supply chain will enable CdTe PV manufacturing capacity to reach 100 GW by 2030. Cadmium telluride solar cells are the only other photovoltaic technology besides crystalline silicon to be manufactured at the gigawatt scale, and they perform better than silicon in hot and humid climates while being less sensitive to import restrictions.

  • The research was published in the peer-reviewed journal Joule in January 2026.

The players

Dr. Michael Heben

A Distinguished University Professor and McMaster Chair and Director of the Wright Center for Photovoltaics Innovation and Commercialization at the University of Toledo.

University of Toledo

A university deeply engaged in research and development of cadmium telluride solar cells through its Wright Center, where physicists' groundbreaking work on this and other thin-film photovoltaic technologies has helped the university rank in the top quarter of global universities in materials science by U.S. News & World Report.

First Solar

The world's largest manufacturer of cadmium telluride solar panels, with a major presence in northwest Ohio. The company traces its roots to early work completed in campus labs at the University of Toledo in the 1980s.

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What they’re saying

“There are a lot of advantages to cadmium telluride. They perform better in hot and humid climates than the silicon photovoltaics that currently dominate the industry, and because their manufacturing process leverages domestic supply chains, they're less sensitive to import restrictions while supporting national energy security.”

— Dr. Michael Heben, Distinguished University Professor and McMaster Chair and Director of the Wright Center for Photovoltaics Innovation and Commercialization, University of Toledo

“Cadmium telluride has much more room to grow in performance compared to silicon. The technology is very reliable and predictable, while the energy conversion efficiency is constantly moving upward.”

— Dr. Michael Heben, Distinguished University Professor and McMaster Chair and Director of the Wright Center for Photovoltaics Innovation and Commercialization, University of Toledo

What’s next

The research provides a roadmap for further growing and expanding cadmium telluride photovoltaic technology in the United States.

The takeaway

This analysis suggests that cadmium telluride solar cells, which have long been overshadowed by crystalline silicon, are poised for a significant resurgence in the U.S. solar market due to technological advancements and domestic supply chain advantages. If the researchers' projections hold true, CdTe PV could play a much larger role in the country's renewable energy future.