Ohio State Basketball Bubble Watch: NCAA Tournament Odds and Path to the Dance With 1 Week Left

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Ohio State basketball ended the regular season on a high note, knocking off Indiana 91-78 on Saturday. This win has improved the Buckeyes' chances of making the NCAA Tournament, with projections now giving them a 99% chance of earning an at-large bid as a No. 9 seed. However, Ohio State still has work to do in the Big Ten Tournament, where they could face tough opponents like Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Illinois, and Nebraska.

Why it matters

Ohio State's performance in the final week of the regular season and the upcoming Big Ten Tournament will be crucial in determining their NCAA Tournament fate. As a bubble team, the Buckeyes need to continue building momentum and solidifying their resume to ensure they hear their name called on Selection Sunday.

The details

The Buckeyes have seen their NCAA Tournament probability fluctuate in recent weeks, but the win over Indiana has boosted their chances significantly. Team Rankings now gives Ohio State a 100% chance of making the field of 68, with ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi projecting them as a No. 9 seed facing Georgia in the Washington D.C. regional. To secure their spot, the Buckeyes will need continued scoring balance, with Bruce Thornton, Amare Bynum, John Mobley Jr., and Devin Royal all contributing. Ohio State's path to the Big Dance includes potential matchups with Oregon, Maryland, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Illinois, and Nebraska - all of which are formidable opponents.

• Ohio State ended the regular season on Saturday, March 9, 2026.
• The Big Ten Tournament will take place in the coming week, starting on Thursday, March 13, 2026.

What’s next

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