Idaho milk production ranks 3rd as output expected to slow across US

Cow numbers and milk per cow rise, but growth in US milk production is slowing due to lower prices and ration changes

Published on Mar. 7, 2026

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Idaho ranked third in U.S. milk production in January 2026, with a 3.2% increase on 22,000 more cows. Overall, U.S. milk production hit a record 232 billion pounds in 2025, up 2.6% from 2024. However, StoneX projects 2026 milk output to rise by only 1.2%, as growth is slowing due to lower milk prices and ration changes.

Why it matters

Idaho's strong milk production ranking highlights the state's growing importance in the U.S. dairy industry. However, the nationwide slowdown in production growth raises questions about the future trajectory of the industry, particularly in light of lower milk prices and changes in feeding practices.

The details

Idaho ranked third in U.S. milk production in January 2026, with a 3.2% increase on 22,000 more cows. Overall, U.S. milk production hit a record 232 billion pounds in 2025, up 2.6% from 2024. But StoneX projects 2026 milk output to rise by only 1.2%, as growth is slowing due to lower milk prices and ration changes.

  • In January 2026, Idaho ranked third in U.S. milk production.
  • U.S. milk production hit a record 232 billion pounds in 2025, up 2.6% from 2024.

The players

StoneX

A financial services firm that provides market analysis and projections for the dairy industry.

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What they’re saying

“It's pretty clear that the most profitable part of the dairy farm right now are the calves. Farmers will hold onto all the cows that they can get bred which should keep cow numbers steady to a little higher but the record pace of expansion that we saw in 2025 is slowing down. The collapse in milk prices in the fourth quarter sent a clear signal to the farmers to cut milk production and they've made adjustments in rations to save some cash which have probably cut the fat content in the milk and slowed the growth in milk production per cow. Milk production growth will likely continue to slow as we move through the year and face tougher and tougher year-over-year comparisons.”

— StoneX (idahobusinessreview.com)

The takeaway

The slowdown in U.S. milk production growth highlights the challenges facing the dairy industry, including lower prices and changes in feeding practices. However, Idaho's strong ranking in milk production suggests the state remains an important player in the national dairy landscape.