Bubble Teams Struggle as NCAA Tournament Hopefuls Face Epic Carnage

With just a week until Selection Sunday, the convoluted bubble picture leaves many teams fighting for the final at-large spots

Published on Mar. 8, 2026

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Saturday was a day of epic carnage on the NCAA Tournament bubble, as several teams closely sandwiching the cutline, including SMU, California, Auburn and New Mexico, all suffered losses. The struggles of bubble teams set the stage for what could be an intense conference tournament week, with at-large spots there for the taking, but the question remains - is anyone willing to step up and claim them?

Why it matters

The chaotic bubble picture highlights the challenges the selection committee faces in finding 68 deserving teams for the Big Dance, let alone potentially expanding the field to 72 or 76 teams. With so many teams faltering, the final at-large spot may come down to which team can avoid the most losses in their conference tournament run.

The details

Among the teams in action on Saturday, SMU, California, Auburn and New Mexico - all closely sandwiching the cutline in CBS Sports Bracketology - suffered losses. Indiana, Virginia Tech, and several other bubble teams also fell. Some teams like SMU, NC State and Missouri had their falls padded to an extent by the struggles of other bubble teams, but the overall picture remains convoluted.

  • Saturday was a day of epic carnage on the NCAA Tournament bubble.
  • The field of 68 for the 2026 NCAA Tournament will be revealed a week from Sunday.

The players

SMU

A team that was once ranked in the AP poll and seemed to be cruising toward a winning season in ACC play, but has now fallen to 19-12 (8-10 ACC) and will be fighting for its NCAA Tournament life in the conference tournament.

California

The Bears' at-large hopes took a hit with a loss at Wake Forest, and they now face a brutal draw in the ACC Tournament, starting in the second round against a hot Florida State team and potentially facing No. 1 seed Duke in the quarterfinals.

Auburn

The Tigers' sheer number of losses (16-15, 7-11 SEC) is an unavoidable problem, and even two consecutive wins in the SEC Tournament may not be enough to overcome their resume.

New Mexico

The Lobos stayed within striking distance of Utah State but ultimately fell 94-90, dropping three of their past four games entering the Mountain West Tournament, where they remain a top contender to win the league title.

Indiana

The Hoosiers have dropped five of their last six games and have no business sniffing the NCAA Tournament as an at-large team unless they make a solid run in the Big Ten Tournament.

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What’s next

The judge in the case will decide on Tuesday whether or not to allow Walker Reed Quinn out on bail.

The takeaway

This chaotic bubble picture highlights the challenges the selection committee faces in finding 68 deserving teams for the NCAA Tournament, let alone potentially expanding the field. With so many teams faltering, the final at-large spots may come down to which teams can avoid the most losses in their conference tournament runs.