Beef Prices Soar as Cattle Herd Shrinks

Demand for beef is high, but supply is tightening due to a declining U.S. cattle population.

Published on Feb. 10, 2026

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New data from the USDA shows that the U.S. cattle herd is shrinking, tightening beef supply nationwide at a time when demand is higher than ever. This imbalance between strong demand and shrinking supply is driving up beef prices across the country, with some grocery stores and meat shops seeing price increases of 30-40% in the last year.

Why it matters

The declining cattle population is a result of recent droughts in the western U.S., where much of the nation's beef is raised. Farmers have been forced to sell off cattle they can't afford to keep, leading to the smallest beef cow herd in the U.S. since the 1950s. This supply crunch is putting financial strain on both producers and consumers.

The details

According to the latest USDA cattle inventory report, there are just over 27 million beef cows nationwide, down 1% from last year. This decline means fewer calves entering the system and less beef available, not just in the short-term, but for years to come. At Brunks Meat Shop in Dayton, Ohio, owner Jack Brunk said they've seen a 30-40% increase in beef prices in the last 12 months, with ground beef rising from $4.99 to $6.99 per pound.

  • The latest USDA cattle inventory report was released in February 2026.
  • Beef prices at Brunks Meat Shop have increased 30-40% in the last 12 months.

The players

Garth Ruff

A beef cattle field specialist who says the current U.S. cattle herd is the smallest it's been in decades.

Jack Brunk

The owner of Brunks Meat Shop in Dayton, Ohio, who has seen a significant increase in beef prices at his store.

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What they’re saying

“Certainly the cow herds, as small as it's been in a number of decades, and prices are as strong as they've been in a number of decades.”

— Garth Ruff, Beef Cattle Field Specialist (wdtn.com)

“In the last 12 months, we've seen an increase in beef prices in the range of 30-40 percent.”

— Jack Brunk, Owner, Brunks Meat Shop (wdtn.com)

The takeaway

The shrinking U.S. cattle herd, driven by recent droughts, is creating a supply crunch that is leading to significantly higher beef prices for both producers and consumers. This imbalance between supply and demand is likely to persist for years, as it takes time to rebuild the cattle population.