U.S. Companies Expect Tamer Prices This Year

Surveys show business price expectations falling to pre-2022 inflation levels

Published on Feb. 19, 2026

Got story updates? Submit your updates here. ›

Companies across the United States say they expect inflation to remain subdued this year, according to surveys from Federal Reserve banks that show business price expectations falling to their lowest levels since before the 2022 inflation surge. The Cleveland Fed's Survey of Firms' Inflation Expectations found businesses expect general inflation of just 3.1% over the next 12 months, down from a peak of 3.9% last year. The Atlanta Fed's Business Inflation Expectations survey shows companies predict their own unit costs will rise by only 2.0% in the year ahead, falling from 2.8% earlier in 2025.

Why it matters

The survey findings align with corporate behavior, as major companies increasingly prioritize affordability over margin expansion. This shift represents a marked change from recent years, when companies routinely passed higher input costs to consumers through price increases. The declining business expectations may provide additional evidence that inflation pressures are moderating, as companies face consumer resistance to higher prices and competitive pressures to maintain affordability.

The details

The Cleveland Fed survey found businesses expect general inflation of just 3.1% over the next 12 months, down from a peak of 3.9% last year. The Atlanta Fed survey shows companies predict their own unit costs will rise by only 2.0% in the year ahead, falling from 2.8% earlier in 2025. Companies are adopting various strategies to maintain market share while managing cost pressures, such as absorbing higher input costs through reduced margins rather than passing them to consumers, or redesigning products or packaging to maintain affordability.

  • The Cleveland Fed's Survey of Firms' Inflation Expectations was released on Tuesday.
  • The Atlanta Fed's Business Inflation Expectations survey shows data from earlier in 2025.

The players

Cleveland Fed

The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, one of the 12 regional Federal Reserve Banks.

Atlanta Fed

The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, one of the 12 regional Federal Reserve Banks.

PepsiCo Inc.

A $29.3 billion food and beverage giant that announced it would cut prices on popular snacks like Cheetos, Doritos and Lay's after 'extensive consumer feedback around affordability limitations.'

Ramon Laguarta

The Chief Executive Officer of PepsiCo.

John Cochrane

An economist at the Hoover Institution who has argued that stronger fiscal capacity can reduce inflation by strengthening the government's fiscal backing.

Got photos? Submit your photos here. ›

What they’re saying

“There are consumers out there that are looking for us to give them excuses to come into the category.”

— Ramon Laguarta, Chief Executive Officer, PepsiCo (Breitbart)

The takeaway

The declining business price expectations suggest that the worst of the inflation pressures may be behind us, as companies face growing consumer resistance to higher prices and competitive pressures to maintain affordability. This shift in corporate behavior could provide further evidence that inflation is moderating, which would be welcome news for policymakers and consumers alike.