2026 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Sleepers & Cinderellas

Experts weigh in on which lower-seeded teams could make a deep run in March Madness

Mar. 17, 2026 at 7:37am

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With the 2026 NCAA Tournament underway, experts are sharing their predictions for potential Cinderella teams and sleepers that could bust brackets. Analysts highlight several lower-seeded squads, including Missouri, Akron, South Florida, and UCF, that they believe have a viable path to make a deep tournament run.

Why it matters

The NCAA Tournament is known for its unpredictable nature, and identifying potential Cinderella teams early can give fans an edge in their bracket predictions. These expert insights provide an in-depth look at some of the lesser-known programs that could make noise in March Madness this year.

The details

Analysts see several teams as potential Cinderella stories in the 2026 NCAA Tournament. Missouri, a 10-seed, is viewed as having a favorable path to the Sweet 16 with winnable matchups against Miami (FL) and potentially Purdue. Akron, a 12-seed, is praised for its strong regular season and favorable draw against Texas Tech and potentially Alabama. South Florida, an 11-seed in the East region, is seen as a threat to make a run with a potential second-round game against a vulnerable Michigan State squad. And UCF, a 10-seed, is highlighted for its impressive resume of victories over top-50 KenPom teams, led by wing Riley Kugel.

  • The 2026 NCAA Tournament is currently underway.

The players

Missouri

A 10-seed team that analysts believe has a viable path to the Sweet 16 with winnable matchups in the first two rounds.

Akron

A 12-seed team that impressed during the regular season and is viewed as having a favorable draw in the tournament.

South Florida

An 11-seed in the East region that could make a run with a potential second-round game against a vulnerable Michigan State team.

UCF

A 10-seed team that has built an impressive resume with victories over top-50 KenPom teams, led by wing Riley Kugel.

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What they’re saying

“Missouri has a viable path through the first two rounds, getting a first-round matchup against a Miami-Fla. squad that isn't very deep and struggles at the free throw line, and then potentially getting Purdue and its Swiss cheese defense in Round 2. If Mizzou can make it through the first weekend, its probable Sweet 16 opponent would be Gonzaga, which so often face-plants earlier than it should. Missouri has struggled away from home this season, but the Tigers should have plenty of fan support in nearby St. Louis for their first two games.”

— Pat Fitzmaurice, FantasyPros

“No. 10 seed Missouri is a team that can get to the Sweet 16. After a coin flip game against Miami, it draws arguably the weakest No. 2 seed in Purdue, whose legs could still be weary after a long run to the Big Ten Championship. The Tigers own wins over Florida, Vanderbilt, and Tennessee, all of whom are No. 6 seeds or better in the 'Big Dance.'”

— Mike Spector, BettingPros

“I really like Akron, which was a three-point loss to Miami (OH) from being 18-0 and running through the MAC. They are a 12-seed with an opener against a Texas Tech team that finished 3-4 down the stretch without JT Toppin. That would set up a Round of 32 game against Alabama, who come into the tournament as losers in two of their last three games. Aside from the friendly matchups, Akron is a good basketball team led by Tavari Johnson and his 20.1 PPG. I like Akron to get to the Sweet 16.”

— Jason Kamlowsky, FantasyPros

“If I had to choose one Cinderella team to make it deep, it would be 11-seed South Florida in the East region. They get a Louisville team in round one that should be getting their best player back in Mikel Brown Jr., but it isn't a certainty how healthy he will be. That is followed by a potential round two matchup against a Michigan State team I believe can be vulnerable.”

— Ari Koslow, FantasyPros

“UCF, the No. 10 seed in the East, has built a resume that makes the mid-major a threat to potentially make a run in the tournament, as evidenced by seven victories over teams ranked in the top-50 of the KenPom rankings in large part because of wing Riley Kugel.”

— Chris Schommer, FantasyPros

The takeaway

The 2026 NCAA Tournament is shaping up to be an exciting one, with several lower-seeded teams poised to make deep runs and bust brackets. Analysts have identified Missouri, Akron, South Florida, and UCF as potential Cinderella stories, highlighting their favorable matchups, impressive resumes, and key players that could lead them to unexpected tournament success. As the madness of March unfolds, these sleeper teams will be worth keeping a close eye on.