Miami (Ohio) Faces Bubble Uncertainty After Early MAC Tourney Loss

The RedHawks' perfect season was derailed by an upset loss, but a key metric may still earn them an NCAA tournament bid.

Mar. 12, 2026 at 8:21pm

Got story updates? Submit your updates here. ›

Miami (Ohio) entered the Mid-American Conference tournament with a 31-1 record, but their perfect season was ruined by an 87-83 loss to UMass in the quarterfinals. Despite the stunning defeat, the RedHawks' strong performance in the Wins Above Bubble (WAB) metric could still earn them an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament, even with a weak non-conference schedule.

Why it matters

Miami (Ohio) had positioned itself as a potential Cinderella story, but the loss to UMass has put their NCAA tournament hopes in jeopardy. The WAB metric, which measures a team's total wins compared to the average bubble team, has become crucial for the selection committee in evaluating teams with vastly different schedules.

The details

Miami (Ohio) piled up 31 wins against a soft non-conference schedule that included three NAIA opponents and other weak Division I teams. Their lone top-100 victory came against Akron in January. Despite the gaudy record, predictive metrics like KenPom and NET had the RedHawks ranked outside the top 80, raising doubts about their tournament worthiness. However, the WAB metric, which focuses on actual wins, has Miami ranked 33rd, ahead of several teams with more marquee wins but more losses.

  • On March 12, 2026, Miami (Ohio) lost 87-83 to UMass in the quarterfinals of the Mid-American Conference tournament.
  • The NCAA tournament selection show is scheduled for Sunday, March 16, 2026.

The players

Miami (Ohio) RedHawks

The men's basketball team from Miami University in Oxford, Ohio, that entered the 2025-26 season with a 31-1 record and high hopes of earning an at-large NCAA tournament bid.

UMass Minutemen

The men's basketball team from the University of Massachusetts that upset Miami (Ohio) 87-83 in the MAC tournament quarterfinals, damaging the RedHawks' NCAA tournament profile.

Jonathan Holmes

The associate head coach of the Miami (Ohio) men's basketball team, who tried unsuccessfully to schedule high-profile non-conference opponents for the RedHawks.

Got photos? Submit your photos here. ›

What they’re saying

“WAB certainly has grown in importance in the last several years. While the NET and some of the other predictive metrics are certainly helpful for the seeding process and for giving an idea of the general strength of teams, WAB actually answers the question: 'What have you accomplished?' That's essential to the selection process.”

— David Worlock, NCAA media coordinator for March Madness

“I was told no by probably 75 to 90 teams, from obviously all your power conferences, to your A-10s, to your Mountain Wests. I guess you could say we were in scheduling no man's land. We didn't fit the profile of what anyone was looking for.”

— Jonathan Holmes, Associate head coach, Miami (Ohio)

What’s next

The NCAA tournament selection committee will announce the field on Sunday, March 16, 2026, and determine whether Miami (Ohio)'s strong WAB metric is enough to earn them an at-large bid despite their early conference tournament loss.

The takeaway

The Miami (Ohio) men's basketball team's impressive 31-1 record may not be enough to secure an at-large NCAA tournament bid on its own, but the Wins Above Bubble (WAB) metric could be the key factor that saves their Cinderella season and earns them a spot in the Big Dance.