Men's College Basketball Conference Tournament Projections and Betting Picks

Austin Mock's model forecasts the odds for major conference tournaments, with best bets for the second week of action.

Published on Mar. 9, 2026

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Austin Mock's college basketball projection model uses advanced metrics and over 10 years of data to simulate conference tournament outcomes. The model gives Duke a 70.6% chance of winning the ACC tournament and favors Akron over undefeated Miami (OH) in the MAC. Mock also provides his best bets for several major conference tournaments, including Illinois (+480) in the Big Ten and Wichita State (+320) in the American Athletic Conference.

Why it matters

Conference tournaments are a crucial part of the road to the NCAA Tournament, as teams vie for automatic bids. Mock's projections and betting picks provide valuable insights for fans and bettors looking to get an edge in the high-stakes world of March Madness qualification.

The details

Mock's model simulates each conference tournament one million times to generate projected odds for teams to win their respective tournaments and secure automatic NCAA Tournament bids. The model favors several underdogs, including Akron over Miami (OH) in the MAC and Bowling Green at +1300 odds in the MAC tournament.

  • The second week of conference tournaments is underway, with 16 more tournaments starting this week.

The players

Austin Mock

A college basketball projection expert who uses advanced metrics and historical data to forecast tournament outcomes.

Duke

The Blue Devils are projected to have a 70.6% chance of winning the ACC tournament.

Akron

The Zips are favored over undefeated Miami (OH) in the MAC tournament, according to Mock's model.

Miami (OH)

The RedHawks enter the MAC tournament undefeated, but Mock's model prefers Akron in the matchup.

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What they’re saying

“My college basketball projection model uses advanced metrics, adjusted for opponents, from more than 10 years of data to create a projection for each team.”

— Austin Mock (nytimes.com)

What’s next

As the conference tournaments continue, fans and bettors will be closely watching to see if Mock's projections and picks hold true.

The takeaway

Mock's data-driven approach to forecasting conference tournament outcomes provides a valuable resource for basketball fans and bettors looking to gain an edge in the high-stakes world of March Madness qualification.