NASCAR Picks: Top Bets for the Texas Grand Prix

Pearce Dietrich shares his top NASCAR bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for the Cup Series race at Circuit of the Americas.

Published on Mar. 2, 2026

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Pearce Dietrich provides his top NASCAR betting picks on DraftKings Sportsbook for the NASCAR Cup Series DuraMAX Texas Grand Prix Powered by RelaDyne at Circuit of the Americas. He highlights the dominant road course performance of driver Shane van Gisbergen, the COTA specialist Tyler Reddick, and the potential value in Ryan Blaney.

Why it matters

The NASCAR Cup Series heads to the road course at Circuit of the Americas in Austin, Texas, where tire management and mid-corner speed will be crucial. Dietrich identifies the drivers he believes have the best chance of winning based on their recent road course performances and practice times.

The details

Dietrich believes Shane van Gisbergen is the driver to beat at COTA, citing his five consecutive road course wins, 135.0 average driver rating, and ability to preserve his tires better than the competition. He also likes Tyler Reddick, who has a 5.0 average finish at COTA since 2022 and won the race in 2024. While Dietrich is fading Ryan Blaney based on his poor COTA history, he notes that Blaney showed impressive speed and long-run degradation in practice, suggesting the Penske driver could be a value play for the win.

  • The NASCAR Cup Series DuraMAX Texas Grand Prix Powered by RelaDyne will take place on Sunday, March 3, 2026.

The players

Shane van Gisbergen

A dominant road course driver who has won five consecutive races on road courses and has a 135.0 average driver rating across those events.

Tyler Reddick

A COTA specialist who has finished 12th, 5th, 1st, and 2nd at the track since 2022, with a 5.0 average finish - the best in the field.

Ryan Blaney

A driver who has struggled on road courses in the Gen 7 car, with a 23.5 average finish at COTA and a 15.7 average finish across 22 road course races.

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What they’re saying

“The entire Chevrolet camp is running off his data and setups — there's a reason Chevys occupied the top of the practice board.”

— Pearce Dietrich, Author (draftkings.com)

“Larry McReynolds reported on the broadcast that they were completely caught off guard by the pace — terrible fire-off speed, decent long-run speed, and a simulation that didn't match reality.”

— Larry McReynolds, NASCAR Analyst (draftkings.com)

The takeaway

The NASCAR Cup Series race at Circuit of the Americas will come down to tire management and mid-corner speed, favoring drivers like Shane van Gisbergen and Tyler Reddick who have excelled on road courses. However, Ryan Blaney's surprising practice pace suggests he could provide value as a potential dark horse winner.