Serious Cold Headed to Western New York This Weekend

Blast of arctic air and lake effect snow to bring dangerous wind chills and potential for heavy snowfall.

Published on Feb. 4, 2026

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A potent winter storm system is set to bring a blast of arctic air and lake effect snow to the Rochester region and surrounding areas of Western New York this weekend. Temperatures are expected to plummet into the single digits, with wind chill values potentially reaching as low as -25°F. In addition, heavy lake effect snow is likely, with snowfall accumulations potentially reaching plowable levels in some areas.

Why it matters

The combination of dangerously cold temperatures and heavy snow could create hazardous travel conditions and pose risks to public safety. Residents will need to take precautions to stay warm and avoid exposure, and local authorities may need to implement emergency response plans.

The details

The cold front is expected to move through the region on Friday, shifting winds to the northwest and causing temperatures to plummet. Gusty winds of up to 40 mph will make the cold feel even more biting, with wind chill values potentially reaching -10 to -20°F in the Rochester area and -25°F in the Finger Lakes and Southern Tier. In addition, the open waters of Lake Ontario are expected to fuel lake effect snow, with snowfall ratios potentially reaching 25:1, leading to efficient accumulation. While snowfall totals remain uncertain, the potential for plowable snow is increasing.

  • The cold front is expected to move through the region on Friday, February 7, 2026.
  • Temperatures are forecast to drop into the single digits on Saturday, February 8, 2026, with the coldest temperatures expected on Sunday, February 9, 2026.
  • Lake effect snow is likely to develop on Friday and continue into the first half of the weekend.

The players

Rochester region

The metropolitan area surrounding the city of Rochester, New York, which is expected to be impacted by the severe cold and lake effect snow.

Finger Lakes and Southern Tier

The regions south of Rochester, which are also expected to experience dangerously low wind chill values due to the arctic air mass.

Lake Ontario

The open waters of Lake Ontario, which are expected to fuel the lake effect snow event.

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What’s next

Local authorities will continue to monitor the forecast and may issue weather advisories or emergency response plans as the storm approaches. Residents are advised to stay tuned to local media for the latest updates and to take necessary precautions to stay safe during the extreme cold.

The takeaway

This weekend's weather event serves as a stark reminder of the harsh realities of winter in Western New York. Residents will need to be vigilant in protecting themselves and their communities from the dangers posed by the combination of bitterly cold temperatures and heavy snowfall.