Cocoa Prices Rally on Hopes for Demand Recovery

Cocoa futures climb to 1.75-month highs amid signs of improving grind data and short-covering by funds

Apr. 14, 2026 at 8:08pm

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An abstract illustration featuring overlapping triangles and rectangles in shades of brown, yellow, and blue, conceptually representing the volatility and interconnected forces driving the cocoa commodity market.Cocoa prices swing on shifting supply and demand factors, as the market seeks balance amid global economic uncertainty.NYC Today

Cocoa prices rallied sharply on Tuesday, with May ICE NY cocoa closing up 8.51% and May ICE London cocoa up 6.57%, on hopes that the recent plunge in prices has sparked a rebound in cocoa demand. Supportive factors include a drop in the U.S. dollar, concerns over fertilizer supplies and shipping costs due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and potential short-covering by funds with large net short positions.

Why it matters

The cocoa market has been under pressure from weak demand, with reports of declining chocolate sales and lower cocoa grindings in key regions. A recovery in demand could help stabilize prices and support incomes for cocoa farmers in major producing countries like the Ivory Coast and Ghana.

The details

The rally was fueled by positive data, including a +8.7% year-over-year increase in Q1 cocoa grindings in Malaysia. Larger supplies from the Ivory Coast and high cocoa inventories remain bearish factors, but the drop in the U.S. dollar and concerns over fertilizer and shipping costs have provided support. Funds have also built up a large net short position, which could lead to short-covering and further price gains.

  • On Tuesday, May ICE NY cocoa (CCK26) closed up +279 (+8.51%), and May ICE London cocoa #7 (CAK26) is up +161 (+6.57%).
  • Malaysia reported that Q1 cocoa grindings rose by +8.7% year-over-year to 91,946 MT.
  • Last Friday's weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report showed funds boosted their short position in NY cocoa by 1,900 net short positions in the week ended April 7 to 16,368, the most in more than 3 years.
  • On Monday, cumulative data from the Ivory Coast showed that farmers shipped 1.46 MMT of cocoa to ports in the current marketing year (October 1, 2025, through April 12, 2026), up +0.7% from 1.45 MMT in the same period a year ago.
  • ICE cocoa inventories rose to a 19.5-month high of 2,610,453 bags on Monday.

The players

Ivory Coast

The world's largest cocoa producer, accounting for more than half of global output. The Ivory Coast said its cocoa production in 2025/26 would fall -10.8% year-over-year to 1.65 MMT from 1.85 MMT in 2024/25.

Ghana

The world's second-largest cocoa producer, along with the Ivory Coast producing more than half of the world's cocoa. Ghana cut the official price it pays its cocoa farmers by nearly 30% for supplies for the 2025/26 growing season.

Nigeria

The world's fifth-largest cocoa producer. Nigeria's Cocoa Association projects that Nigerian cocoa production in 2025/26 will fall by -11% year-over-year to 305,000 MT, from a projected 344,000 MT for the 2024/25 crop year.

International Cocoa Organization (ICCO)

The intergovernmental organization for cocoa, which raised its global 2024/25 cocoa surplus estimate to 75,000 MT from 49,000 MT in November, the first surplus in four years.

StoneX

The financial services firm that on January 29 forecasted a global cocoa surplus of 287,000 MT in the 2025/26 season and a 267,000 MT surplus for 2026/27.

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What’s next

Upcoming cocoa grind data from Europe, Asia, and North America will be closely watched for signs of improving demand. The weather outlook for major cocoa-producing regions like the Ivory Coast and Ghana will also be a key factor in price direction.

The takeaway

The cocoa market is navigating a complex mix of supply and demand factors, with hopes for a demand recovery competing against ample global inventories and production. The ability of prices to sustain the current rally will depend on whether the positive demand signals can outweigh the bearish supply-side pressures.