Bitcoin Plunges 50% as Whales, ETFs, and Warnings Fuel Crypto Winter

Experts predict a prolonged bear market as the once-lauded digital currency sheds value amid shifting investor sentiment.

Apr. 13, 2026 at 2:22am

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A close-up, cinematic view of a complex network of gears, levers, and metal components representing the inner workings of a financial institution or banking system. The image is highly detailed, textured, and industrial in nature, capturing the weight and power of the machinery that underpins the modern economy.As the cryptocurrency market plunges, the complex financial infrastructure that supports the industry is revealed in stark detail.NYC Today

Bitcoin's value has plummeted 50% since October 2025, plunging from a high of $125,000 per coin to $61,300. Analysts attribute this dramatic decline to the behavior of 'whales' - large Bitcoin holders who have transitioned from net buyers to net sellers, as well as retail investors exiting the market through exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Industry experts warn that the crypto market is unlikely to see a quick recovery, with UBS's Paul Donovan stating that 'Crypto is not an asset' and that consumer behavior is unlikely to change due to the recent volatility.

Why it matters

The cryptocurrency market's downturn has sent shockwaves through the financial landscape, raising concerns about the long-term viability of digital currencies. The behavior of whales and retail investors suggests a significant shift in sentiment, potentially signaling a prolonged bear market that could have broader implications for the crypto ecosystem and the broader economy.

The details

According to Jefferies analyst Andrew Moss, the large Bitcoin holders known as 'whales' have been accumulating the cryptocurrency since early January but have recently transitioned into net sellers, exacerbating the market's downward trend. Additionally, retail investors who had bought into Bitcoin through ETFs offered by traditional finance platforms are also selling, with the net outflows from these ETFs during the weeks of January 19th and 26th being the second and third largest since inception. This indicates a significant shift in investor sentiment, with many retail investors exiting the market.

  • Bitcoin's value has plummeted 50% since October 2025, from a high of $125,000 per coin to a low of $61,300 on April 12, 2026.
  • The net outflows from Bitcoin ETFs during the weeks of January 19th and 26th, 2026 were the second and third largest since inception.
  • A large net outflow from Bitcoin ETFs occurred on February 4th, 2026.

The players

Andrew Moss

A Jefferies analyst who has been tracking the behavior of 'whales' - large Bitcoin holders - and their transition from net buyers to net sellers.

Paul Donovan

A strategist at UBS who has stated that 'Crypto is not an asset' and that consumer behavior is unlikely to change due to the recent market volatility.

Chevy Cassar

The author of the respected crypto newsletter Milk Road, who has predicted that the market is likely to hit bottom anywhere from one to 11 months from now.

Henry Allen

A Deutsche Bank analyst who notes that yesterday's performance was Bitcoin's worst daily decline since November 2022, when the FTX crypto exchange collapsed.

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What they’re saying

“Crypto is not an asset, and it's held by a tiny portion of society. It is unlikely that consumer behavior will change because of recent market moves.”

— Paul Donovan, Strategist, UBS

“This sucks, and I predict a continuation of the downward trend. The market is likely to hit bottom anywhere from one to 11 months from now.”

— Chevy Cassar, Author, Milk Road newsletter

What’s next

Analysts will continue to monitor the behavior of whales and retail investors, as well as any potential regulatory changes or market interventions that could impact the trajectory of the cryptocurrency market.

The takeaway

The cryptocurrency market's current downturn highlights the volatility and uncertainty inherent in the digital currency ecosystem. As the market navigates this 'crypto winter,' investors and industry experts will be closely watching for signs of a potential recovery or a prolonged bear market that could have broader economic implications.