Economists Warn of Rapid AI Progress Disrupting Job Market

Forecasters see significant AI advancements and potential for major labor force declines by 2030.

Apr. 10, 2026 at 1:10pm

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A highly detailed, glowing 3D illustration of a complex network of illuminated circuits, wires, and data nodes, conceptually representing the advanced digital infrastructure powering the rapid progress of artificial intelligence.As AI capabilities rapidly advance, economists warn of potentially severe disruptions to the job market and labor force in the coming years.NYC Today

A new study surveying economists, AI experts, and 'superforecasters' found growing consensus that rapid progress in artificial intelligence could lead to significant job losses and labor force declines over the next decade. While the worst-case scenarios are still uncertain, the research indicates economists are increasingly factoring AI disruption into their long-term forecasts.

Why it matters

As AI capabilities advance, the potential impact on employment and the economy is a major concern. This study suggests economists are starting to take the threat of AI-driven job losses more seriously, which could influence policy decisions and preparations for the future of work.

The details

The study, conducted by researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Forecasting Research Institute, and top universities, surveyed 69 economists, 52 AI specialists, and 38 'superforecasters.' It found that all three groups expect 'significant' progress on AI in the coming years, with the median economist predicting a 1.6% decrease in the overall labor force participation rate over the next five years. Under a 'rapid progress' scenario, economists forecast the labor force participation rate could dip below 60% by 2030 - a level not seen in over 50 years.

  • The study was published on April 10, 2026.
  • Economists predict a 1.6% decrease in labor force participation over the next 5 years.
  • Under a 'rapid progress' scenario, economists forecast the labor force participation rate could drop below 60% by 2030.

The players

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago

One of the 12 regional Federal Reserve Banks in the United States, responsible for monetary policy and economic research.

Forecasting Research Institute (FRI)

A research organization focused on economic forecasting and analysis.

Robert Seamans

An economist at New York University whose previous work was cited in the study.

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What they’re saying

“There's enough conversation around this that we certainly should, as a country, be talking about what sorts of policies make sense in a world where the way employment and careers work now changes a lot in the next two to five years.”

— Robert Seamans, Economist, New York University

What’s next

The study's findings are expected to influence economic policy discussions and preparations for the potential impact of rapid AI progress on the job market.

The takeaway

This research indicates economists are increasingly factoring in the possibility of transformative AI advancements that could significantly disrupt the labor force and economy in the coming years, raising the urgency for policymakers to address the challenges ahead.