Blue-collar work has plateaued, narrowing options for young workers

Hiring in manufacturing and construction sectors has declined, even as the economy has grown larger

Apr. 10, 2026 at 10:05am

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A minimalist, abstract illustration using bold geometric shapes and primary colors to conceptually represent the economic concept of a plateau in blue-collar work opportunities, with declining hiring rates in manufacturing and construction sectors.As blue-collar job growth stagnates, young workers face narrowing options for middle-class careers.NYC Today

The blue-collar labor market, particularly jobs occupied primarily by men, has been slowing for more than a year, with sectors like manufacturing and construction racking up roughly 150,000 net job losses annually as of March. In contrast, healthcare and social assistance jobs, which women typically dominate, have seen the most growth. Factors like decelerated commercial activity, reduced immigration, and rising interest rates have contributed to the slowdown in blue-collar hiring.

Why it matters

The plateauing of blue-collar work narrows options for young workers, who may have traditionally looked to skilled trades like plumbing, electrical work, and construction for middle-class wages without a four-year college degree. This shift could have significant implications for the economic prospects of men, who have historically dominated these sectors.

The details

While hiring managers in the trades previously complained about labor shortages, job openings in manufacturing and construction have now fallen to levels last seen in 2016 and 2018 respectively, even as the overall economy has grown. Factors like decelerated commercial activity, reduced immigration, and rising interest rates have contributed to the slowdown in blue-collar hiring. Some business owners and economists say the messy trio of these overlapping factors has created a mismatch between the supply and demand for blue-collar labor.

  • In June, the White House said President Donald Trump's signature package of tax cuts would 'unleash our economy and deliver a Blue-Collar BOOM.'
  • Jobs in sectors that include the trades, such as manufacturing and construction, have racked up roughly 150,000 net losses on an annual basis as of March.
  • Job openings in manufacturing, which include welders, machinists and mechanics, peaked in 2022 but have since plummeted to 2018 levels.
  • Job openings in construction, which include carpenters, HVAC installers and ironworkers, have fallen to levels last seen in 2016.

The players

Joey Politano

An economic analyst who calculated the job losses in the trades sectors.

Joseph Brusuelas

The chief economist for RSM, an accounting firm, who stated that demand for blue-collar labor is not sufficient to meet the supply.

Guy Berger

A labor economist and senior adviser at Access Macro, a consulting firm, who said the idea that people should just go into the trades is not supported by the data.

Marco Zappacosta

The CEO of Thumbtack, an online marketplace for people looking to hire tradespeople, who said the trades are a cyclical sector.

Jack Marquardt

The owner of Electric Avenue, a contractor in the Portland, Oregon area, who has made efforts to recruit young people to the electrician trade.

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What they’re saying

“There are jobs available. But right now, demand for blue-collar labor is not sufficient to meet the supply.”

— Joseph Brusuelas, Chief Economist, RSM

“This idea that all these people need to do is go into the trades or whatever is just not supported by the data.”

— Guy Berger, Labor Economist and Senior Adviser, Access Macro

“It's a cyclical sector. When you look further out, past this cycle, you see the trends that are causing people to pay attention here.”

— Marco Zappacosta, CEO, Thumbtack

“It's all about finding the right people — just because somebody shows up with a pulse, or even an electrical license, that doesn't automatically mean that we could use them.”

— Carl Murawski, Employee, Ducci Electrical

“If we want men to have job opportunities, then we need to get them into these jobs where the job opportunities are coming from. I desperately want to get this whole issue about what's happening to boys and men away from the culture war stuff, away from the dinner party lamentations about 'the manosphere,' and into the reality of the economy.”

— Richard Reeves, Author and President, American Institute for Boys and Men

What’s next

As the economic factors that have contributed to the slowdown in blue-collar hiring continue to evolve, it will be important to monitor how this trend impacts the job prospects and economic security of young workers, particularly men, who have historically relied on these sectors for middle-class wages without a four-year college degree.

The takeaway

The plateauing of blue-collar work, driven by a complex mix of economic forces, narrows options for young workers and raises concerns about the economic prospects of men, who have traditionally dominated these sectors. This shift underscores the need to address the changing dynamics of the labor market and ensure that all workers, regardless of gender, have access to stable, well-paying jobs.