U.S. Gas Prices Remain High Despite Ceasefire in Middle East Conflict

Experts cite ongoing uncertainty in the Strait of Hormuz and elevated risk premium.

Apr. 9, 2026 at 8:55pm

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A geometric abstract illustration using bold shapes and primary colors to conceptually represent the economic impact of elevated fuel prices and geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East.As tensions in the Strait of Hormuz linger, high fuel prices continue to squeeze U.S. consumers despite a ceasefire announcement.NYC Today

U.S. consumers will continue to pay high prices to fill up their vehicles or purchase airplane tickets through the peak summer travel season, several market experts said on Wednesday, even as wholesale fuel prices cooled after President Donald Trump announced a two-week ceasefire in the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran.

Why it matters

High fuel prices resulting from Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz have become a major issue for Trump and his Republican Party as they campaign to maintain control of the U.S. Congress in November's midterm elections. The economic pain has pushed approval ratings of Trump to the lowest since his return to the White House.

The details

After Trump announced a two-week ceasefire deal on Tuesday, U.S. crude oil futures fell nearly $20, and U.S. gasoline and diesel futures also fell sharply, as traders bet on a potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. However, falling crude futures probably will not bring quick relief for consumers at the pumps, experts said, noting that cracks had already begun to appear in the fragile truce. The Strait of Hormuz remained shut on Wednesday after Israel launched its biggest attacks yet on Lebanon. Iran also hit a pipeline that Saudi Arabia has been relying on to bypass the Hormuz.

  • On Tuesday, President Donald Trump announced a two-week ceasefire deal.
  • On Wednesday, the Strait of Hormuz remained shut after Israel launched attacks on Lebanon and Iran hit a Saudi pipeline.

The players

President Donald Trump

The U.S. president who announced a two-week ceasefire deal in the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran.

Shon Hiatt

Director of the Zage Business of Energy Initiative at the USC Marshall School of Business.

Alex Hodes

Director of energy market strategy at StoneX.

Patrick De Haan

Analyst at GasBuddy.

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What they’re saying

“There's so much uncertainty still around what this ceasefire means, and when and how fuel starts to flow through the Strait of Hormuz again, retailers are not going to drop prices sharply in the face of those unknowns.”

— Shon Hiatt, Director of the Zage Business of Energy Initiative at the USC Marshall School of Business

“Prices go up like a rocket, and they fall like a feather.”

— Shon Hiatt, Director of the Zage Business of Energy Initiative at the USC Marshall School of Business

“If everything were to freeze right now, the national average could fall 5 or 10 cents a gallon for gasoline by this time next week.”

— Patrick De Haan, Analyst at GasBuddy

“Markets still will be elevated throughout the rest of the year with an elevated geopolitical risk premium.”

— Alex Hodes, Director of energy market strategy at StoneX

What’s next

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The takeaway

This case highlights growing concerns in the community about repeat offenders released on bail, raising questions about bail reform, public safety on SF streets, and if any special laws to govern autonomous vehicles in residential and commercial areas.