Historian Warns Iran Conflict Could Trigger Lasting Global Economic Instability

Historian Jamie Martin argues that even brief wars can lead to shocks that outlast the fighting.

Apr. 9, 2026 at 8:14pm

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An abstract geometric composition in muted tones of gray, blue, and green, using simple shapes and lines to represent the complex, interlocking systems of global trade and supply chains disrupted by economic shocks.A conceptual illustration capturing the far-reaching economic ripple effects of regional conflicts in an interconnected global economy.NYC Today

In a New York Times op-ed, Harvard historian Jamie Martin warns that the economic fallout from the recent Iran conflict could have long-lasting global impacts, even if the current ceasefire holds. Martin argues that in today's tightly linked global economy, disruptions to critical supply chains for oil, fertilizer, helium, and other key materials could produce inflationary surges and economic crises that persist for months or years after the fighting stops.

Why it matters

The historian's analysis suggests that even relatively short regional conflicts can trigger widespread economic shocks that reverberate far beyond the immediate theater of war, potentially leading to higher prices, fiscal crises, and political unrest in countries around the world.

The details

According to Martin, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz during the Iran conflict has not only jolted oil markets, but also blocked the shipment of crucial materials like fertilizer, helium, and chemicals used in everyday plastics. He warns that "snarled supply chains will take months to untangle, and damaged production facilities in the Persian Gulf will take even longer to repair." Energy prices are unlikely to fall back to pre-war levels anytime soon, and food scarcities are likely to emerge, with poorer nations hit hardest.

  • The Iran conflict has been ongoing for around a month.

The players

Jamie Martin

A Harvard historian who has extensively studied the economic impacts of World War I.

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What they’re saying

“Of course, the Iran war has been nowhere near the scale or duration of World War I. Yet even if this shaky cease-fire holds, there are reasons to believe that its shocks will be felt long after.”

— Jamie Martin, Historian

“Snarled supply chains will take months to untangle, and damaged production facilities in the Persian Gulf will take even longer to repair.”

— Jamie Martin, Historian

The takeaway

This analysis suggests that even relatively brief regional conflicts can have far-reaching economic consequences in today's globalized world, potentially leading to sustained inflation, fiscal crises, and political instability in countries far removed from the initial theater of war.