Newly Created Polymarket Accounts Profit from Insider Bets on US-Iran Ceasefire

Suspicious trading activity raises concerns about potential use of inside information on prediction market platform

Apr. 8, 2026 at 10:53pm

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A dynamic, abstract painting featuring a gavel motif repeated in overlapping, fractured geometric shapes in shades of blue, teal, and gold, conveying the chaotic and fast-paced nature of insider trading in prediction markets.Newly created accounts on a prediction market platform profit from suspiciously well-timed bets, exposing the need for greater regulation to prevent insider trading.NYC Today

A group of newly created accounts on the prediction market Polymarket made highly specific, well-timed bets on whether the U.S. and Iran would reach a ceasefire on April 7, resulting in hundreds of thousands of dollars in profits for these new customers. The trading pattern mirrors earlier episodes on the platform where newly created accounts placed large wagers hours before major geopolitical events, raising questions about potential insider trading.

Why it matters

This incident highlights ongoing concerns about the lack of regulation in prediction markets, where traders may be able to exploit inside information to generate outsized profits. It also underscores the need for broader definitions of insider trading to cover these types of platforms, which have faced scrutiny from lawmakers and experts.

The details

At least 50 new Polymarket accounts placed substantial 'Yes' bets on a U.S.-Iran ceasefire just hours before President Trump announced the deal on April 7. One wallet created that same day made $200,000 in profits, while another new account from April 6 won $125,500. The higher prices for 'Yes' bets late in the day may have reflected efforts by Pakistan to get Trump to extend his deadline. However, the trading patterns mirror previous episodes on Polymarket where newly created accounts profited from well-timed bets around major geopolitical events.

  • On April 7, Trump issued a warning that 'a whole civilization will die tonight' if Iran did not meet his demand to open the Strait of Hormuz by 8 p.m. ET.
  • Around 6:30 p.m. ET on April 7, Trump announced a two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran.
  • In the hours before Trump's ceasefire announcement, at least 50 new Polymarket accounts placed substantial 'Yes' bets.

The players

Polymarket

A prediction market platform where users can bet on the outcomes of future events.

Donald Trump

The former President of the United States who announced the U.S.-Iran ceasefire.

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What they’re saying

“This is why these markets need regulation. We can't have people trading with inside information and expect other traders are going to be OK being in these markets.”

— Todd Philips, Professor at Georgia State University

What’s next

Polymarket has labeled the April 7 Iran-U.S. ceasefire contract as 'disputed', and the dispute could take 48 hours to resolve. Lawmakers have also introduced legislation to broaden the definition of insider trading to include prediction markets.

The takeaway

This incident highlights the need for greater regulation and oversight of prediction markets to prevent potential exploitation of inside information and ensure a fair playing field for all traders. The pattern of newly created accounts profiting from well-timed bets raises serious concerns about the integrity of these platforms.