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Stocks, Not Gas Prices, Reveal US Consumer Resilience
March's 5% S&P 500 slump could hurt consumer confidence more than rising fuel costs.
Apr. 1, 2026 at 11:05am
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As the US economy grapples with the fallout from the Iran war, much attention has been on Americans' ability to withstand higher gasoline prices. However, evidence suggests consumer resilience may be more tied to the performance of the stock market, where a 5% decline in the S&P 500 in March could have a greater impact on confidence than rising fuel costs.
Why it matters
Consumer spending is a critical driver of the US economy, so understanding the factors that influence it is key. While gas prices have historically been a focus, the stock market's performance may now be a more important barometer of consumer resilience, given shifts in household wealth and spending patterns.
The details
Surging equity prices have been supporting consumer confidence in recent years, but the 5% drop in the S&P 500 index in March could hurt that confidence. Americans' reliance on the stock market for wealth has grown, making them more sensitive to market fluctuations. At the same time, gasoline prices have become less of a burden for many households, reducing the impact of higher fuel costs on overall spending.
- The S&P 500 index fell 5% in March 2026.
The players
Matthew Boesler
An economics editor at Bloomberg News in New York.
What they’re saying
“Much of the focus on US consumer resilience since the Iran war broke out has been on Americans' ability to cope with higher gasoline prices. Evidence suggests it's better now than in past decades. Where the vulnerability may instead lie is the stock market.”
— Matthew Boesler, Economics Editor
The takeaway
As the US economy navigates the post-Iran war landscape, tracking consumer sentiment may require a shift in focus from gas prices to the stock market. The performance of equities could now be a more reliable indicator of household resilience and spending patterns.
