NFL Demands Prediction Markets Stop Manipulable Trading

League says certain markets like announcer comments and player injuries can be easily manipulated.

Apr. 1, 2026 at 12:55am

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The NFL is taking action to stop insider trading and manipulation in prediction markets, sending letters to operators like Kalshi and Polymarket demanding they cease offering trades on certain events like announcer comments, celebrity attendance, draft picks, player signings, coach firings, officiating calls, and player injuries. The league says these types of wagers can be easily manipulated and lead to unfair allegations against players and staff.

Why it matters

Prediction markets have become a new frontier for sports betting, with millions already traded on markets like what announcers will say during games. But the NFL is concerned these markets are susceptible to insider trading and manipulation, which could undermine the integrity of the sport.

The details

In the letters, the NFL specified that markets involving announcer comments, celebrity attendance, draft picks, player signings, coach firings, officiating calls, injuries and fan safety can be easily manipulated or determined in advance. The league says this could lead to 'unfair and unwanted allegations' against players and staff. The NFL has been in discussions with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which regulates prediction markets, though they don't have a formal agreement. MLB has already partnered with the CFTC to monitor for manipulation.

  • On Sunday, the NFL sent letters to prediction market operators like Kalshi and Polymarket.
  • The NFL's move follows months of discussions with the CFTC.

The players

Jeff Miller

NFL executive vice president who said some people will have inside information they can share, and the league wants to stay far away from those kinds of wagers.

Michael Selig

Chair of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, who said the agency will defer to the leagues' judgment on what markets are susceptible to manipulation.

Kalshi

A prediction market operator that the NFL has demanded stop offering certain types of wagers.

Polymarket

A prediction market operator that the NFL has demanded stop offering certain types of wagers, and which says it will collaborate with leagues to protect game integrity.

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What they’re saying

“Some people are going to have that information … that they can then share. We're trying to stay as far as we can from some of those sorts of inside information wagers that could exist in this space.”

— Jeff Miller, NFL executive vice president

“Polymarket welcomes the opportunity to collaborate with leagues across sports to protect the integrity of the games and the fan experience overall.”

— Polymarket spokesperson

“While trading on sports outcomes has always been legal, it's been disallowed by past administrations. We will defer to the leagues' judgment on what markets are susceptible to manipulation.”

— Michael Selig, Chair of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

What’s next

The NFL has not yet weighed in on any new legislation that would ban prediction markets, with Miller stressing the league wants stronger safeguards before partnering with them. The CFTC says it will defer to the leagues' judgment on what markets are susceptible to manipulation.

The takeaway

The NFL's move to shut down certain prediction markets highlights the league's concerns about the potential for insider trading and manipulation, which could undermine the integrity of the sport. As the popularity of prediction markets grows, sports leagues are grappling with how to balance innovation with protecting their games from unfair advantages.