Sugar Prices Pressured by Higher Brazil Production

Increased sugar output in Brazil weighs on global sugar prices, despite supply disruptions from Strait of Hormuz closure.

Mar. 31, 2026 at 8:05pm

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A minimalist abstract illustration using geometric shapes and primary colors to conceptually represent the dynamics of the global sugar market, without any literal depictions of financial elements.Shifting global sugar production patterns and trade flows create complex economic patterns that impact producers and consumers worldwide.NYC Today

Sugar prices fell to 1.5-week lows on Tuesday as higher sugar production in Brazil undercut global sugar prices. Cumulative 2025-26 sugar output in Brazil's Center-South region is up 0.7% year-over-year, with mills crushing more cane for sugar. The rally in the Brazilian real also discouraged export sales from Brazil's sugar producers. However, sugar prices have some support from supply disruptions due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which has curbed about 6% of global sugar trade.

Why it matters

Brazil is the world's largest sugar producer and exporter, so changes in its sugar output have a significant impact on global sugar prices and trade flows. Higher Brazilian production puts downward pressure on prices, which can affect the revenues of sugar producers worldwide and the costs for sugar consumers. The Strait of Hormuz closure is also a relevant factor, as it highlights how geopolitical events can disrupt global commodity supply chains.

The details

Sugar prices fell on Tuesday, with May NY world sugar #11 closing down 0.19% and May London ICE white sugar #5 closing down 0.84%. The decline was driven by higher sugar production in Brazil, where cumulative 2025-26 Center-South sugar output is up 0.7% year-over-year to 40.25 million metric tons. Brazilian sugar mills have increased the amount of cane crushed for sugar to 50.61% from 48.08% last year. The rally in the Brazilian real against the US dollar also discouraged export sales from Brazil's sugar producers.

  • Cumulative 2025-26 Center-South sugar output (October through mid-March) is up 0.7% year-over-year.
  • On Monday, NY sugar rallied to a 5.5-month high, and London sugar climbed to a 6-month high, driven by recent strength in crude oil prices.

The players

Unica

The Brazilian sugarcane industry association that reported the increase in Center-South sugar output.

Covrig Analytics

An analytics firm that estimated the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has curbed approximately 6% of the world's sugar trade.

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What they’re saying

“The closure of the strait has curbed approximately 6% of the world's sugar trade, constraining refined sugar output.”

— Covrig Analytics

What’s next

Sugar prices will likely continue to be influenced by updates on sugar production in major producing countries like Brazil, India, and Thailand, as well as any further developments regarding the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

The takeaway

The global sugar market remains in a delicate balance, with higher production in Brazil putting downward pressure on prices, but supply chain disruptions from geopolitical events providing some support. Monitoring key production and trade data will be crucial for understanding the trajectory of sugar prices in the coming months.