Douthat: Closing Strait of Hormuz Iran's 'Nuclear-Esque' Option

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Columnist Ross Douthat argues that Iran's ability to close the Strait of Hormuz and threaten the global energy market is a form of 'nuclear-esque' deterrent, similar to possessing nuclear weapons. He suggests the U.S. strategy of regime change has put Iran in an existentially threatened position, making the regime more willing to make extreme, apocalyptic threats. Douthat is skeptical Iran will become a regional hegemon, but warns the U.S. may have to accept a 'limited defeat' and de-escalate rather than pursue a costly land war.

Why it matters

The conflict between the U.S. and Iran has escalated to the point where Iran's ability to disrupt global energy markets through the Strait of Hormuz has become a powerful deterrent, similar to the threat of nuclear weapons. This dynamic could lead to a dangerous game of brinkmanship and mutually assured destruction if not carefully managed.

The details

Douthat argues the U.S. and Israeli strategy against Iran has been motivated by fear of Iran using nuclear weapons for regional dominance. However, the conflict has instead put Iran in a position where it can make 'nuclear-esque' threats by closing the Strait of Hormuz and threatening to destroy Gulf infrastructure. This escalatory power was not available to previous U.S. adversaries like Saddam Hussein or Moammar Gadhafi. The author suggests the U.S. decapitation campaign against the Iranian regime has left it in an existentially threatened position, making extreme 'apocalyptic' moves more rational for Iran. While Iran's abilities are not as instantaneous as a nuclear weapon, the distributed nature of its threats makes them still potent.

• The U.S. and Israel have been engaged in a conflict with Iran for several years, with tensions escalating in recent months.

What they’re saying

What’s next

The U.S. and its allies will need to carefully weigh the risks of further escalation against Iran, potentially shifting away from a regime change strategy and towards renewed diplomacy to de-escalate tensions.