March Madness Thrills Despite Lack of Cinderella Upsets

Power conference teams dominate as mid-major Cinderella stories become rare

Mar. 24, 2026 at 11:50am

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The 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament has seen a decline in Cinderella stories, with no teams seeded lower than 12th advancing to the second round for the second straight year. The Sweet 16 is composed entirely of power conference teams, a stark contrast to the past when at least one mid-major program had reached this stage in 49 consecutive tournaments. Experts attribute this trend to the growing financial advantages of top programs through NIL deals and the transfer portal, making it increasingly difficult for smaller schools to compete.

Why it matters

The lack of Cinderella stories in the NCAA Tournament is a concern for many fans, as these underdog narratives have long been a major part of the tournament's appeal and magic. The dominance of power conference teams threatens to diminish the tournament's unpredictability and excitement, which could impact viewership and overall interest in the event.

The details

In the first two rounds of the 2026 NCAA Tournament, betting favorites went 39-9 outright, tying the fewest upsets in the opening week since 2018. Prior to 2024, at least one mid-major program had reached the Sweet 16 in 49 consecutive tournaments, but that streak has now been broken for the second straight year.

  • The 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament is currently underway.
  • In 2024, the streak of at least one mid-major reaching the Sweet 16 was broken for the first time in 49 years.

The players

NCAA

The National Collegiate Athletic Association, the governing body for college sports in the United States.

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The takeaway

The decline of Cinderella stories in the NCAA Tournament is a concerning trend that could diminish the event's excitement and appeal for many fans. As power conference teams continue to dominate, the tournament may lose some of its unpredictability and magic that has made it one of the greatest sporting events in the world.