Nate Silver says Trump's approval rating in uncharted territory

The White House has pushed back against the significance of day-to-day polling, and the president's base remains behind him.

Mar. 19, 2026 at 11:33am

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According to polling analyst Nate Silver, President Donald Trump's approval rating has now entered uncharted territory, with his overall net approval across all voters at minus 15.3 percent, the lowest point recorded in Silver's model so far. This decline is being driven largely by near-universal disapproval among Democrats and increasingly negative sentiment among independent voters, even as Trump's political base remains firmly behind him.

Why it matters

Approval ratings often shape political momentum, especially heading into a midterm cycle. With the 2026 elections approaching, shifts among independents could prove more consequential than loyalty within Trump's base.

The details

Silver's approval tracker combines all available polls, whether conducted among adults, registered voters or likely voters, with a preference for all-adult samples when multiple versions exist. Each survey is weighted based on pollster rating, sample size, recency and how frequently a pollster releases data. The model also adjusts for consistent "house effects" that can cause some pollsters to lean systematically more positive or negative than others.

  • The White House has pushed back against the significance of day-to-day polling.
  • The 2026 elections are approaching.

The players

Nate Silver

A polling analyst who tracks President Trump's approval rating.

Davis Ingle

A White House spokesperson.

Eli McKown-Dawson

A senior elections analyst who writes for Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin blog.

Brett Loyd

A polling and research specialist for the Independent Center.

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What they’re saying

“The president has already made historic progress not only in America but around the world. It is not surprising that President Trump remains the most dominant figure in American politics.”

— Davis Ingle, White House spokesperson

“We're 14 days into the Iran War. The conflict remains unpopular across most polls, although it still enjoys strong support among Republicans.”

— Eli McKown-Dawson, Senior elections analyst

“Presidential approval remains a functional barometer for tracking the momentum of an administration's start and finish, but its day-to-day utility has diminished. In this polarized era, partisan lenses create a floor and ceiling that rarely budge.”

— Brett Loyd, Polling and research specialist

What’s next

Attention is likely to remain focused on how independent voters respond as the Iran conflict develops and domestic priorities compete for public attention. With multiple economic and foreign policy tests ahead, approval trends may fluctuate as the broader political landscape.

The takeaway

This case highlights the growing divide between President Trump's loyal base and the broader electorate, with independent voters in particular becoming increasingly skeptical of his leadership. As the 2026 elections approach, these shifting approval ratings could have significant implications for the political landscape.