Lawmakers Allege Insider Trading on U.S. Attack on Iran

Senators claim people close to the White House profited from advance knowledge of military strike

Mar. 19, 2026 at 3:30am

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U.S. Senators Chris Murphy and Greg Casar have alleged that individuals with insider knowledge of a planned U.S. military strike on Iran placed bets online predicting the attack, profiting over $100,000 each. The senators have introduced legislation to ban such "event trading" on sensitive government actions, calling it "fundamentally corrupt."

Why it matters

The allegations raise concerns about potential insider trading and corruption within the White House, as well as the national security implications of allowing foreign entities to gain insights into U.S. decision-making processes through prediction market bets.

The details

According to the senators, on the day before the U.S. attacked Iran, over 150 individual accounts on the betting site Polymarket placed "highly unusual bets" that the war would start the next day. In total, 109 of those accounts made more than $10,000, 16 accounts made $100,000, and one account garnered nearly $500,000 from the bets.

  • The U.S. attacked Iran the day after the suspicious bets were placed online.

The players

Chris Murphy

A U.S. Senator from Connecticut who has introduced legislation to ban wagering on government actions by people with advance knowledge.

Greg Casar

A U.S. Representative from Texas who has co-sponsored the legislation with Senator Murphy.

Polymarket

An online prediction market platform where the suspicious bets were allegedly placed.

Donald Trump Jr.

The eldest son of former President Donald Trump, who serves as a strategic advisor for rival prediction market platform Kalshi and is on the advisory board of Polymarket.

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What they’re saying

“These bets put money down on the United States attacking Iran the following day. Those bets paid off to the tune of over $100,000 at minimum, for each of the individuals who placed those bets.”

— Chris Murphy, U.S. Senator

“While working-class kids were getting sent to fight and die in the Middle East, others were cashing in, and they either got very lucky or they were privy to very secret inside information.”

— Greg Casar, U.S. Representative

What’s next

The Senate is expected to consider the Banning Event Trading on Sensitive Operations and Federal Functions Act, as well as other bills aimed at regulating the prediction market industry, in the coming weeks.

The takeaway

These allegations highlight the need for greater oversight and regulation of prediction market platforms to prevent insider trading and protect national security interests, as well as the integrity of government decision-making processes.